For so long he's been the nearly man of the World Rally Championship, but now Elfyn Evans is on the verge of a maiden world title.
The Welshman holds a 17-point advantage over his Toyota team-mate Sami Pajari heading into the final round of the 2026 season at Rally Italia Sardegna.
Oliver Solberg is a further four points adrift from Evans, but with a total of 35 points on offer as drivers navigate Sardinia's notoriously unforgiving gravel stages, it's all to play for to see who comes out on top.
Rally Saudi Arabia was initially scheduled to close the curtain on the 2026 campaign. However, due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, the scenic coastal views from the Coral Coast city will provide a sublime backdrop to a thrilling finale.
We take a look at the permutations ahead of the WRC finale, where a new champion is guaranteed.
World Rally Championship standings
Position | Driver | Points |
1. | Elfyn Evans | 230 |
2. | Sami Pajari | 213 |
3. | Oliver Solberg | 209 |
What does Elfyn Evans need to achieve at Rally Italia Sardegna to win the WRC title?
Evans has control of his title destiny and the Welshman will know that 19 points is the magic number for him to be crowned world champion for the first time, regardless of what Pajari or Solberg achieve.
He can accomplish that by winning Rally Italia Sardegna, which would award him 25 points.
If he finishes second overall (17 points), Evans requires two bonus points from Super Sunday and the Power Stage to mathematically seal the title.
In the event that Pajari achieves a maximum 35-point weekend, Evans must finish no lower than fourth and accrue a minimum of seven bonus points.
Results that win Evans the title
- Rally victory
- Second overall plus at least two Sunday bonus points
- Third overall plus at least four bonus points
- Fourth overall plus at least seven bonus points
- Fifth overall plus at least nine bonus points
What does Sami Pajari need to achieve at Rally Italia Sardegna to win the WRC title?
In a breakout season that's witnessed him record victories in Estonia, Finland and Paraguay, Pajari knows he must outscore Evans by 18 points to finish the season at the summit.
There is also the Solberg factor to consider. If Pajari outscores Evans by 18 points, but accrues five points less than Solberg, then the Swede will snatch the crown from the Finn.
Should Pajari achieve a maximum 35-point weekend - rally victory, Super Sunday win and Power Stage win - then it would be enough to be crowned world champion providing Evans doesn't score any more than 18. If the Welshman scores exactly 18, the pair would be level on 248 points, and Pajari would triumph by virtue of rally wins.
Second overall might be enough to win the world championship providing Pajari scores at least one bonus point and Evans fails to finish the rally.
What does Oliver Solberg need to achieve at Rally Italia Sardegna to win the WRC title?
Solberg is the outsider heading into the final round of the season, but his victory in Chile ensured his title dreams are still alive.
To achieve his maiden world championship, Solberg must outscore Evans by at least 22 points AND Pajari by 5 points.
A maximum 35-pointer would lift Solberg onto 244 points, meaning Evans cannot score 15 points or more. If Evans scores exactly 14 points and the two are tied, the title will fall into Solberg's lap with him holding three victories to the Welshman's two.
A perfect weekend would also prevent Pajari from taking maximum bonus points, ensuring Solberg would come out on top.
