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Wimbledon women's singles final betting tips: Ons Jabeur to get it right at SW19

Ons Jabeur is favourite to win her first Grand Slam singles title with a victory over Marketa Vondrousova in the Wimbledon final, although both women are playing well and it could be a closely fought encounter.

Adrian Humphries' tip:

Ons Jabeur to win 2-0 @ 6/5

Odds displayed were correct at the time of writing and subject to fluctuation.

View the latest Tennis odds here

WhatMarketa Vondrousova v Ons Jabeur
WhereWimbledon, All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club
When14:00, Saturday 15th July
How to watchBBC Sport & Eurosport
OddsMarketa Vondrousova 15/8, Ons Jabeur 4/9

Setting the scene…..

12 months on from reaching her first Wimbledon final, Jabeur has made the All England Club showpiece again and this time the Tunisian should have enough to land the most historic prize in tennis.

Last summer, Jabeur found only Elena Rybakina too good in the London major. However, this time around the 28-year-old's package is even more complete - she has avenged that loss to Rybakina by defeating the Kazakhstan player in the quarter-finals and then coming back to dispatch Aryna Sabalenka in the semi-finals.

And it will be a surprise if Czech Marketa Vondrousova, while a fine player in her own right, has the game to deflect Jabeur off her path to greatness.

Vondrousova, a 24-year-old native of Prague, already has two victories to her name over Jabeur this year. They came on the hardcourts of the Australian Open in January and in Indian Wells in March. 

However, Jabeur was nowhere near her best at the start of the campaign - indeed, many observers feel that she may have been saving herself for another crack at Wimbledon after her experience there last season.

Ons Jabeur to win 2-0 @ 6/5

Jabeur has now made three Slam finals in her career, while Vondrousova has reached two.

Jabeur contested two major singles title matches last year, at Wimbledon and in the US Open, which again suggests she plays her best tennis in the second half of the season.

Vondrousova won just four games in her first major final when crushed by Ashleigh Barty at the 2019 French Open.

Form wise, both players have seen off some seriously good adversaries. Jabeur ousted Magdalena Frech, Zhuoxuan Bai, 2019 US Open heroine Bianca Andreescu, 2022 Wimbledon champion Rybakina and Sabalenka, the reigning Australian Open champion.

Vondrousova, meanwhile, has ousted Kaia Kanepi, Veronika Kudermetova, Donna Vekic, Marie Bouzkova, Jessica Pegula and Elina Svitolina on her way to the final.

In their personal series, even though she is 0-2 against Vondrousova in 2023, Jabeur is level at 3-3 overall. She has beaten Vondrousova on grass before too, in Eastbourne in 2021. However, it should be noted that Jabeur has come on leaps and bounds on the nippy green terrain since that Devonshire Park triumph.

There's a sizeable gap for Vondrousova to overcome in the rankings too. Jabeur is number six in the WTA charts at the moment - she's seeded sixth at Wimbledon this year too - while Vondrousova is down at 42nd in the world after a series of injury problems. She played only half of last season due to health issues.

However, the left-hander is back now and playing somewhere approaching her best tennis again. Even though she has made it past the fourth round of a Grand Slam singles on only two occasions - this being her second - Vondrousova clearly has what it takes to go deep in majors and it could pay punters to watch her closely in future Slams while she remains fit and well.

For now, though, Jabeur looks likely to hold the upper hand. She won 76% and 74% of her first-service points in those titanic clashes with Rybakina and Sabalenka respectively and Vondrousova, while hugely talented in her own right, will do well to attain such lofty levels in only her second Slam final.

And while Jabeur has had to fight back from a deficit in three of her last four matches, she may not need to on this occasion.

Adrian Humphries' tip

Only big-hitters will be comfortable taking odds of 4/9 about a Jabeur victory, so regular backers will probably want to find a price with a bit more substance in it.

The problem is, there is little margin for error siding with the favourite to successfully concede her opponent a handicap start of 3.5 games. If by any chance Vondrousova was to win a set 6-3 such a bet would be all but doomed.

Therefore, punters may be tempted to side with Jabeur to finish off the Czech in double-quick time in straight sets.

That’s still possible, of course, because even allowing for Vondrousova’s impressive toll of scalps, she’s unlikely to provide the sort of test that Rybakina and Sabalenka afforded the Tunisian.

Jabeur could make the running this time and it could be that the bigger doubt surrounds her ability to nail a victory in double-quick time and without the need for a deciding set.

There could obviously be immense pressure on either player come the chance to snaffle that maiden Slam crown, but handily Jabeur is looking pretty solid this season. One only has to allude to her 6-0 6-3 fourth-round thrashing of Kvitova to see that’s the case.

Ons Jabeur to win 2-0 @ 6/5

Odds displayed were correct at the time of writing and subject to fluctuation.

View the latest Tennis odds here

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