Will Rishi Sunak lose his seat? Richmond and Northallerton general election odds

With just days until the general election, the polls are all pointing to a Labour landslide, and there are even questions over whether the Conservatives will be the second biggest party.

One poll released recently predicted a Conservative wipeout that would see the party win just 53 seats at the election, though it should be pointed out that two others had the Conservatives on 108 and 155 seats, and while both would be see a huge Labour majority, it would likely see a lot of prominent MPs - including the Prime Minister - cling on to their seats.

Although the Conservatives have drifted from 1/4 to 4/11 recently to win Sunak's seat of Richmond and Northallerton, the odds haven't changed much since the polls, and Labour are 2/1 to win in North Yorkshire.

Projections still vary significantly, but the betting suggests Labour will win around 420 seats, the Conservatives will be around the 100 mark, the Liberal Democrats will be around 50, with the remaining seats split between the likes of the SNP, Reform UK, the Green Party and others.

There are, however, a number of cabinet ministers who look set to lose their seats, including Penny Mordaunt, Grant Shapps, Alex Chalk and Michelle Donelan amongst others, and we've looked at some of the most at-risk MPs.

The lowest share of the vote the Conservatives have had in the last 100 years was in 1997 when they won 30.7% under John Major as Labour won a landslide under Tony Blair, but it's highly unlikely they'll even reach that number this time, with less than 20% of the vote 2/1, 20%-23.99% priced at 5/6 and 24-27.99% available at 15/4.

It doesn't appear Labour will win significantly more votes than in other elections; indeed, YouGov polling shows Labour have dipped from 48% on 7th May to 40% on 4th June following a polling methodology change, and the most recent numbers from 13th June have them on 37%. While Jeremy Corbyn's Labour won 40% in 2017, the right is now split between the Conservatives and Reform UK.

While it's unlikely Reform's polling numbers will translate into many seats, it will do significant damage to the Conservatives' election performance.

Liam Williams

• • 
  •