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Who needs what on the final day of the Premier League season?

There remains plenty to be sorted - not least the destination of the title - on the final day in the Premier League on Sunday.

Original article published 29 August 2022

It could be excruciatingly edgy for some, certainly celebratory for others and downright dismal for several with the relegation picture, top four places and even the Golden Boot to be sorted out on what will definitely be an eventful matchweek 38.

Here, we run-down who needs what on what could yet prove to be the most exciting finish to a top-flight season ever.

Manchester City - Win against Aston Villa to win title

It's fairly simple for defending champions City. Win, as they normally do, at home to Aston Villa and the Premier League title - the club's sixth - will be theirs. That outcome, which is 1/6, against Steven Gerrard's side would then deny Liverpool the chance of overtaking them at the top on Sunday.

Liverpool - Win against Wolves and hope City draw/lose to win title

Liverpool's pursuit of their title rivals has been fairly relentless and they sit just a point behind going into their final home game against Wolves. A victory is required for the Reds then, on top of hoping Villa get either a draw or win at the Etihad, for a record-equalling 20th top-flight crown to be celebrated wildly by Jurgen Klopp and co come 6pm. It would also keep up the sensational prospect of an unprecedented quadruple alive.

Liverpool are 1/6 to beat Wolves, a shock away win is 12/1 and the draw is 7/1.

Tottenham - Draw or win against Norwich to secure fourth place

With the goal difference much better, Tottenham realistically need just a point away at already-relegated Norwich to secure fourth place ahead of arch-rivals Arsenal and take the final Champions League place. A Spurs win is 1/4, a draw is 11/2 and a shock home win is 17/2.

Arsenal - Win against Everton and hope Tottenham lose to Norwich to secure fourth place

Arsenal, who are two points behind Spurs in fifth, must beat Everton at home, on offer at 4/11, to stand any chance of qualifying for the Champions League. A victory over the now-safe Toffees, coupled with an unlikely Canaries victory, would see them leapfrog their north London foes and into fourth.

With one of Tottenham and Arsenal guaranteed to be in the Europa League group stages by finishing fifth, and after Liverpool have already won the two domestic cups, Manchester United and West Ham are in a fight to finish sixth to also secure a group-stage place in the second tier European competition for next season.
Whoever finishes seventh will play in the Europa Conference League, entering in the play-off round,

Manchester United - Win against Crystal Palace to secure sixth place

Manchester United, who are two points clear of West Ham but have a 10-goal inferior goal difference to the Hammers, will claim sixth if they beat Crystal Palace, available at 5/4, at Selhurst Park or if West Ham fail to win on Sunday.

West Ham - Win against Brighton and hope Man Utd draw or lose

Should the Red Devils drop points, West Ham will be guaranteed a Europa League spot via sixth place if they win at Brighton, on offer at 19/10.

Everton secured survival with a 3-2 win over Palace on Thursday so now either Leeds United or Burnley will join Norwich and Watford in going down to the Championship.

Leeds - Win or draw if Burnley lose

If Leeds win or draw at Brentford and Burnley lose at home to Newcastle, they will stay up but if Burnley win they will survive. A draw or defeat for both would also consign Leeds back down to the second tier due to their vastly inferior goal difference. Basically, Leeds need to better Burnley's result to stand a chance.

Burnley - Better or match Leeds' result

Burnley will stay up if they beat Newcastle at home or if they better or match Leeds' result at Brentford. The Clarets and the Whites are locked together on 35 points but Leeds' worse goal difference puts Mike Jackson's men in the driving seat going into the final day.

Leeds are 13/8 to win at Brentford, with a draw 14/5 and a Bees victory 29/20. Burnley are 5/4 to beat Newcastle, the Magpies are 11/5 to win and a draw is 12/5.

Who will scoop the Golden Boot?

Finally there is the matter of the Premier League Golden Boot to be distributed too. Liverpool ace Mo Salah 1/2 has led the way for much of the campaign but his drop off in form and injury worries have opened the door to the chasing pack.

Tottenham star Heung-min Son 6/4 is just a goal behind the Egyptian with 21 for the season and it's not beyond the realms of possibility that the South Korean international will overtake Salah on the final day with two or more strikes as Spurs eye goals at Championship-bound Norwich. On top of that there remains considerable doubt Salah will even be fit enough to play in the Reds' final game at home to Wolves.

Cristiano Ronaldo, a 66/1 shot to finish as top scorer, is four goals behind Salah so he will also be hoping to sign off for the season for Manchester United with more goals to see if he can get into the mix on what may well be an entertaining Golden Boot sideshow on Sunday.

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