West Brom v Southampton: Prediction, Tips and Odds

Southampton will be hoping to return to the Premier League at the first time of asking via the Championship play-offs but a two-legged semi-final with West Brom isn’t going to be a stroll in the park.

The Saints completed a league double over West Brom and they finished 12 points ahead of them in fourth, although three defeats in their final four games of the regular season may temper some people’s enthusiasm.

The Baggies also endured defeat in three of their final four outings but a 3-0 at home to Preston on the last day of the campaign may have steadied the nerves.

West Brom v Southampton betting tips and predictions

Southampton draw no bet - 4/5

The opening leg of a play-off tie can be cagey and, while that may be the case at the Hawthorns, Southampton’s additional firepower may make all the difference.

The Saints favour a possession-based approach under up-and-coming manager Russell Martin and they are likely to dictate the way the contest is played.

Southampton completed a league double over the Baggies, winning 2-1 at St Mary’s in November before recording a 2-0 victory at the Hawthorns in February.

Martin’s men had 63 per cent possession in the away game, which provides some insight into how this contest may be played, and they restricted the Baggies to only two shots on target.

That means Southampton have won six of the last seven meetings between the sides and they were 12 points clear of the Baggies in the Championship standings.

While Southampton scored 87 goals across their 46 league games this season, West Brom managed only 70 and Brandon Thomas-Asante was their only player to hit double figures with 12.

The Saints, meanwhile, saw Adam Armstrong and Che Adams score 39 goals between them and there is no doubt that they inherit a greater attacking presence. Throw in the return from injury of Ross Stewart, Bournemouth loanee David Brooks and Newcastle loanee Ryan Fraser and the visitors have a wealth of forward options at their disposal.

Having snapped a three-game losing run with a 2-1 victory at play-off rivals Leeds on the final day of the season, Southampton may have regained their belief at the perfect time.

It is likely to be a low-scoring encounter, though, so taking Southampton on the draw-no-bet market may be the safest approach for punters.

Over 10 corners  - 10/11

While goals might be in short supply corners shouldn’t be, as these are two sides who tend to rack up plenty of them.

Southampton’s league matches averaged 11.43 corners this season, with them averaging 7.41 of their own per outing, while West Brom’s fixtures averaged 10.91.

In 61% of Southampton’s league matches this season there were 11 or more corners and that could be the case at the Hawthorns, where they had nine corners in their February showdown.

That match went on to feature 15 corners despite there being only six shots on target and two goals while there were 13 corners in Southampton’s 2-1 victory at St Mary’s.

Over 10 corners is available at 10/11 and that looks to represent plenty of value as both teams target set pieces in what is likely to be a tie settled by the finest of margins.

Adam Armstrong to score first - 11/2

Armstrong tops Southampton’s scoring charts this season with 21 goals from 49 appearances in all competitions while he has also chipped in with 13 assists to highlight his importance on this team.

The 27-year-old has really benefited from dropping down to the Championship and, having ended his seven-game goal drought in the 2-1 victory at Leeds last time out, he will believe he can bolster his scoring tally.

Armstrong netted the winning goal in the 2-1 victory over the Baggies at home in November and his 49 appearances have featured a total of 104 shots, which suggests a good few chances are going to fall his way.

He is 11/5 to score at any time during the match but the 11/2 about him opening the scoring may represent greater value given the likelihood of a low-scoring encounter.

West Brom v Southampton odds

West Brom - 7/4
Draw - 9/4
Southampton - 31/20

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.