Wells Fargo Championship: Odds, tips and predictions

The sixth Signature Event of the season is upon us, and with Scottie Scheffler absent, it opens the door to a host of players, and Mike Glasscott has eight players to watch across three markets.

Wells Fargo Championship tips

To Win – Rory McIlroy (15/2), Tommy Fleetwood (25/1)
Top 10 – Max Homa (21/10), Xander Schauffele (23/20), Sahith Theegala (13/5)
Top 20 – Alex Noren (11/8), Denny McCarthy (17/10), Taylor Pendrith (23/10)

Quail Hollow course guide

Located outside of the bustling North Carolina city of Charlotte the proud Quail Hollow Club has hosted PGA TOUR events, including the PGA Championship and the Presidents Cup, since 2003.

The George Cobb design from the late 1950s was updated multiple times by Tom Fazio, including adding 20 yards for the 2024 edition. Tipping out at 7,558 yards, the Par-71 annually rates in one of the toughest courses to navigate on TOUR.

The fairways are not often found and the greens in regulation are usually played to the proper side, away from the trouble. New TifEagle Bermuda is bustling under the overseeded Poa Trivialis, and putting will be a factor this week. After 20-under or better was required to win last week, only 14 players have posted 10-under or better in the last four tournaments combined at Quail Hollow.

One of the five longest tracks used on TOUR, power is in play this week. The 11 Par-4 holes have nine stretching over 440 yards, including four measuring 490 yards or better. The Par-71 has three Par-5 holes, all measuring fewer than 600 yards, plus two drivable Par-4 opportunities. The Par-3 challenges range from 249 to 180 yards and require a full commitment.

Defending champion Wyndham Clark owns the Par-71 scoring record, 265 (-19). Rory McIlroy owns the Par-72 scoring record of 267 and the course record of 61, set in 2015.

Stat of the week: The last four winners have finished first or second in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Wells Fargo Championship preview

Quail Hollow Club has hosted every event, sans two, since 2003. In lieu of the PGA Championship, the 2017 event took place at Eagle Point in Wilmington, North Carolina. The 2022 edition was moved to TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm in Bethesda, Maryland, to ready for the Presidents Cup.

Leading into the second major championship of the season next week, the WFC provides a deep field on a major-championship-style venue.

Last year, the field of 156 players was cut to the top 65 and ties. The 2024 edition welcomes a field of 69 that will play all 72 holes (stroke play) and includes 42 of the top 50 from the Official World Golf Rankings.

The 2023 and 2019 champions, two of the last three to hold the trophy on the property, were first-time winners on TOUR. There have been five first-time winners since 2010.

Setting the tournament scoring record in 2015, McIlroy also won by seven shots, the most in tournament history.

The Ulsterman is the only player to win this event more than once (2010, 2015, and 2021).

The winner will take home 700 FedExCup points and $3.6 million of the $20 million purse.

Players not already qualified for the PGA Championship next week have one final opportunity to force themselves into the field.

bet365: Top of the Board  

Rory McIlroy (15/2): Coming off a win in his last event with Shane Lowry at the Zurich Classic, the three-time WFC winner should be licking his chops. Known to get hot and stay hot, he has won the week before a major multiple times and won’t be bothered by any stats suggesting otherwise.

Xander Schauffele (9/1): Running second to Clark last year, albeit by four shots, he was three clear of his next closest competitor. The model of consistency, I’m expecting better results on his own ball after T23 with Cantlay in New Orleans. Super all through his bag, I’ll hop on board for another top-10 payday.

Wyndham Clark (16/1): Back to where it all started last spring, the reigning champion has since won ANOTHER Signature Event, plus a major championship. Without Scheffler in the field, it removes the hurdle that thwarted him at TPC Sawgrass and Bay Hill. Defending for the first time is rarely easy and no player has done it here.

Patrick Cantlay (18/1): The metrics have been providing the clues. I wouldn’t imagine the correction occurring this week.

Max Homa (20/1): The 2019 winner and top-10 finisher last year (T8) ran T3 at the Masters, another similar layout. The Californian plays well where he plays well. QHC qualifies.

Justin Thomas (25/1): The ascent to Valhalla should continue again this week. Cashing T5 at RBC Heritage, the man longing for his old Kentucky home, far away, has one more tune-up before looking to secure his third PGA Championship.

Cameron Young (25/1): Almost half of the last 11 winners have been first-timers on TOUR at QHC. The big-hitting Wake Forest alum should have plenty of support as he tries to break through. Being a great putter THIS WEEK is the key.

Collin Morikawa (25/1): Keeping it between the lines and painting GIR is the formula to contend. Paying off approach play and keeping a clean card is the winning formula. I’ll be more interested next week on less familiar putting surfaces.

Tommy Fleetwood (25/1): Grinding out pars over the last two years has seen him cash T5 and T14. Not many enjoy four difficult rounds more than the Englishman.

Players to consider for Top 10, Top 20, or Top 40 action:

Sahith Theegala (28/1): Playing the weekend 10 times from 12 attempts, he’s cashed in the top 10 in half. With plenty of pop and guile from tee to green, his putter should shine this week.

Alex Noren (45/1): The Swede has posted consistent results all winter and spring. Adding another top-25 payday this week after solo third at Byron Nelson would be his sixth in a row. Heat check.

Rickie Fowler (55/1): Just a sprinkle, but he plays well here. The 2012 champ has four top-10 and seven top-25 paydays.

Denny McCarthy (66/1): The super putter lost in a playoff in a big ballpark in San Antonio before the Masters. The underrated ball-striker cashed T8 here last year.

Taylor Moore (90/1): Missing the weekend only once this season, he won’t have to worry about how his partner is playing this week. The winner at Innisbrook enjoys a tough examination.

Taylor Pendrith (110/1): Hits it a mile and can really putt. Riding high after his first win on TOUR last week at TPC Craig Ranch, not having a cut should ease his adrenaline.