The 2024 US presidential election takes place on 5th November, with Kamala Harris and Donald Trump vying for the presidency.
Read below for all you need to know about how the US presidential election works, from primaries and caucuses, to the Electoral College and inauguration.
US election odds
Read more about the US election odds here.
When is the 2024 US election?
The 2024 presidential election will be held on 5th November 2024.
When will the US election results be announced?
While we may have a strong indication regarding who will win on 6th November, the day after the election, due to the time taken to count ballots in key battleground states - as well as the possibility of legal challenges and recounts - the results may not be known for a few days after the election, and it may take several weeks for them to be made official.
What is the Electoral College?
The Electoral College is a group of electors who vote for the president and vice president.
While voters vote for who they want to be the next president and vice president, they’re actually voting for an elector who has pledged to vote for a certain president and vice president.
The 538 Electoral College votes are split between the 50 states as well as the District of Columbia with bigger states like California (55 votes) and Texas (38 votes) receiving a higher number of votes than smaller states such as Vermont and Delaware (three votes each). Those votes are then tallied, with the candidate receiving the most Electoral College votes winning the presidency.
Critics of the Electoral College system say that it is unfairly weighted – states with the smallest populations are guaranteed three electoral votes – and that swing states are overly targeted. Nine states (Alaska, Idaho, Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Utah and Wyoming) have voted Republican in 14 consecutive elections, while Hawaii and New York have voted Democrat in nine consecutive elections.
Swing states tend to be disproportionately targeted for campaigning, with Ohio voting for the winning candidate in 14 straight elections from 1964 to 2020 holding the longest bellwether streak until the 2020 election. Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania now hold the longest bellwether streaks with four each.
US election paths to victory
In carrying 19 Electoral College votes, the state of Pennsylvania will be crucial to the outcome of the US presidential election, while Nevada (six votes), Wisconsin (10), Michigan (15), North Carolina (16) and Georgia (16) will also play key roles in determining the next president.
Georgia has only voted Democrat once since 1992 (for Joe Biden in 2020) while North Carolina has only voted Democrat once since 1976 (for Barack Obama in 2008). If the Republicans win both, the Democrats will needs Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin in order to get to 270 Electoral College votes.
Pennsylvania has voted Democrat in every presidential election dating back to 1992 bar 2016, when it voted for Trump. If it stays blue in 2024, Harris will win the presidency with Wisconsin and one of Georgia, North Carolina and Michigan or Michigan and one of Georgia and North Carolina or Georgia and North Carolina.
Despite only carrying six Electoral College votes, Nevada may play a big role in the election. It has voted Democrat for the last four elections and has voted for the winning candidate in every election bar one (2016 when voting for Hillary Clinton) since 1976. If the Democrats win Nevada, the Republicans cannot win without at least one of Wisconsin (voted Democrat in eight of last nine elections, voting for Trump in 2016), Michigan (voted Democrat seven of last eight elections, also voting for Trump in 2016) or Pennsylvania.
What's the difference between Democrats and Republicans?
Generally speaking, the Democrats are considered to be more liberal, with the Republicans more conservative. If looking for UK equivalents, the Democractic Party shares similarities with the Labour Party, while the Republican Party is more closely aligned with the Conservatives.
The Democrats typically support a larger state, meaning more increase in public spending for things such as welfare programmes, while the Republicans prefer a smaller state.
On social issues, the Democrats are much more liberal, typically favouring greater LGBTQ+ rights, greater civil rights for minorities and more relaxed abortion laws. Conversely, the Republicans are typically supported by more Christian fundamentalists, who generally oppose more LGBTQ+ rights and abortion laws, while taking a more anti-immigration stance and are in favour of more relaxed gun laws.
Although parties and candidates all run on their own policies, they're broadly similar from election to election, with a summary below:
Democrat policies
- Higher taxes, more public spending
- More socially liberal e.g. more rights for social and racial minority groups
- Tighter gun laws
Republican policies
- Tighter immigration laws
- Lower taxes, less public spending
- Tougher stance on crime e.g. advocation of death penalty
- More relaxed gun laws
When is the new president sworn in?
The new president will be sworn in on Inauguration Day on 20th January 2025.
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