The US presidential election draws ever closer, and bet365 have betting on site for all 50 states.
US presidential election odds - Arizona
US presidential election odds - Michigan
US presidential election odds - Nevada
US presidential election odds - New Mexico
US presidential election odds - Pennsylvania
US presidential election odds - Wisconsin
Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are the recent bellwether states, correctly calling the 2008, 2012, 2016 and 2020 elections, with the Democrats odds-on at 1/2, 4/7 and 8/13 respectively to win each state in 2024.
On the flip side, Ohio has correctly called every election bar one since 1960 and is 1/10 to vote Republican, though has shown a disproportionate lean to the Republicans in the last two elections.
Much like in the United Kingdom, there are certain areas that will always vote for the same party; typically, the Democrats will take the west coast of Washington, Oregon and California, as well as most if not all of the north east, including New York. In total, these states add up to nearly 200 electoral college votes.
The Republicans will typically take most if not all of the mid-west and deep south as well as Texas, which will add up to around 200 electoral college votes.
Of course, each party needs 270 electoral college votes, which means the more marginal ones will decide the election. Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin add up to 44 votes, and without at least one if not two of those states, it will be very hard to win the election, while Nevada and Arizona are also too close to call.
Should the voting follow the odds, the Democrats should reach 270 votes without Nevada or New Mexico (both of which are marginal), but that relies on them taking each of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
If the Democrats take Pennsylvania, they should be able to reach 270 votes with just two of Georgia, Michigan, Arizona and Wisconsin. Without Pennsylvania, they'll likely need Georgia, Michigan, and two of Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada.
Without Pennsylvania, the Republicans will likely need Georgia and then two of Michigan, Arizona and Wisconsin.
It's also worth keeping in mind that a tie isn't impossible. If the Republicans can take both congressional districts in Nebraska as well as Nevada, Arizona and Georgia, and the Democrats takes Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, it could leave both parties on 269.
What happens if both parties get 269 electoral college votes?
In the unlikely scenario that both parties receive 269 electoral college voters each, the newly elected House of Representatives would vote on who they wanted to elect as president, while the newly elected Senate would vote for the vice president.
Should a decision not be met by 4th March, the vice president-elect would serve as acting president.
Both the House of Representatives and Senate are currently split by razor-thin majorities, and it's not impossible that the president and vice president are represented by different parties.
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