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UEFA Champions League qualification permutations

The UEFA Champions League has just one round of fixtures in the league phase with plenty still to play for.

Critics suggested that with only 12 of 36 teams being eliminated at this stage, there were a lot of games to not eliminate many teams, and that there'd be a lack of jeopardy, with only the weakest teams not getting through.

But with seven games played, Manchester City are remarkably still outside the top 24, with RB Leipzig, Bologna and Girona already eliminated.

Below we look at the permutations for the league phase of the UEFA Champions League.

Manchester City

The equation for Manchester City is simple: win or go home.

A draw or loss will mathematically eliminate Pep Guardiola's men regardless of what happens elsewhere, but if they beat Brugge, they're guaranteed to finish level on points with the Belgian side, with a better head-to-head record.

They can't finish in the top eight, or the top half of the 9th-24th placed teams.

Arsenal

On 16 points, Arsenal are all but confirmed to reach the last 16. They'll need to lose to Girona, with most of Atalanta, Bayer Leverkusen, Monaco, Feyenoord, Lille and Brest all winning and overturning a significant goal difference deficit.

Liverpool

Arne Slot's Reds have breezed through the league phase; the only question is whether they'll top it or not, though there's no additional reward for doing so.

Only Barcelona can catch Liverpool, which they'll do if they beat Atalanta at home and Liverpool lose to PSV Eindhoven away.

Aston Villa

Aston Villa's return to Europe's elite has already produced some unforgettable nights with the win over Bayern Munich the highlight of the campaign so far.

Setbacks on the road to Monaco and Club Brugge have jeopardised their top-eight hopes, but a win at home to Celtic should be enough to see them sneak in.

Villa are level on points with Bayer Leverkusen who have Sparta Prague at home, but a point behind Atalanta, who face a trip to Barcelona.

If Villa win and Atalanta don't, they'll finish in the top eight, as long as the likes of Monaco (two goals worse), Feyenoord (three goals worse), Lille (three goals worse) or Brest (three goals worse), don't also win and overhaul them on goal difference.

You can see all the latest UEFA Champions League odds on our dedicated UEFA Champions League hub.

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