Alexander Zverev v Rafael Nadal: Prediction, Tips and Odds

One of the greats of the game takes on one of today's top stars in a cracking first-round match at the French Open on Monday and Alexander Zverev should have the legs to get the better of veteran Rafael Nadal in Paris.

Alexander Zverev v Rafael Nadal betting tips and predictions

Alexander Zverev to win and both players to win a set - 6/5

Nadal may make only one appearance in his delayed 19th assault on the French Open but all eyes will be on his first-round match against world No. 4 Zverev in Paris.

The Spanish star has missed the last four Grand Slam events due to a hip injury but has played three clay-court tournaments over the last six weeks in Barcelona, Madrid and Rome and reports suggest his fitness has improved, even since his last outing in the Italian tournament.

Nadal is a 14-time French Open champion having won the tournament in nine of his first 10 attempts and he has an incredible 97 per cent win rate in the event.

He managed to win at least one match in each of his recent outings and reached the last 16 in Madrid. He never got going in a 6-1 6-3 loss to world No. 8 Hubert Hurkacz in Rome and now has to tackle another top-10 performer as he comes in unseeded.

Zverev won that Rome Masters event with a 6-4 7-5 victory over Nicolas Jarry in the final and he dropped only one set on the way, against Alejandro Tabilo of Chile in his semi-final. 

The German is 1/4 to win the match but for a bet at more rewarding odds, taking Zverev to win with Nadal taking at least one set at 6/5 is preferred.

Zverev was on top of his game in Rome but he went out in the round of 16 in his previous tournament in Madrid, losing 6-3 6-4 to Francisco Cerundolo of Argentina. While Cerundolo is no back-marker and ranked 27th in the world, it will give Nadal hope that he can upset the odds.

Nadal has the heart of a lion and a tame exit would not fit at all well with his phenomenal Paris performances down the years. He should have at least one more set win in him.

Over 9.5 first-set games - 4/5

Nadal's best chance should be in the first set before any fitness concerns come into play and backing a competitive opener in his match with Zverev appeals.

Half of Zverev's matches in Rome had double-figure first set game totals, including his last-32 match against Luciano Darderi, which went to a tie-break.

His three matches in Madrid had nine, 10 and nine games and both of his match-ups in Munich, when he went out in the quarter-finals to Cristian Garin of Chile, had 10 or more games.

Nadal's two matches against Alex De Minaur in Barcelona and Madrid opened with sets of 12 and 13 games and he is capable of treating the fans to a lengthy first set.

The Spaniard has a 7-3 record against Zverev and their most recent meeting in the French Open semi-finals in 2022 was well on its way to becoming an epic when the German had to stop due to injury. 

The pair were still in the second set after three hours and 13 minutes of play - with Nadal leading 7-6 6-6 - when Zverev suffered a serious ankle injury.

Alexander Zverev 10+ aces - 10/11

Nadal is arguably the best returner the game has ever seen but his prowess is dwindling with age and Zverev should be able to fire down aces against him.

In his six Rome matches, Zverev sent down more aces than each one of his opponents, winning the ace battle 8-2, 12-4, 9-2, 6-1, 10-7 and 6-4. 

All but one of those matches lasted only two sets, but with this one guaranteed to go at least three and Nadal capable of extending it to four or five, it would be no surprise to see Zverev reaching 10 aces in Paris on Monday.

Nadal allowed nine and seven aces in his two Rome matches and may be more pragmatic about risking everything to reach a wide one these days than in his youth.

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Alexander Zverev v Rafael Nadal odds

Alexander Zverev - 1/4
Rafael Nadal - 3/1

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.