Tommy Paul v Cameron Norrie: Free Tips, Prediction and Odds

Cameron Norrie tends to save some of his best tennis for the ATP Indian Wells Open, but standing in his way of a place in the fourth round this year is world number 11 Tommy Paul.

Indian Wells was the scene of Norrie's biggest tournament success to date, as he beat Nikoloz Basilashvili in the 2021 final to land the first and so far only ATP Masters 1000 title of his career.

Norrie has reached two more quarter-finals since then and he has already dispatched two opponents to reach the third round this year, including 23rd seed Jiri Lehecka, who he saw off in three sets.

Paul, a semi-finalist at Indian Wells 12 months ago, will mark a step up in opponent for Norrie, with the American eyeing another deep run in California.

Tommy Paul v Cameron Norrie free betting tips and predictions

Tommy Paul to win in straight sets - 10/11

Norrie is bidding to achieve something he has yet to do on the ATP Tour this season - win three consecutive matches at the same tournament.

It has certainly been a disappointing start to 2025 for the 29-year-old, who has slipped down to number 77 in the world after suffering early exits at the majority of the tournaments he has featured in.

That includes going out in the first round of the Australian Open, albeit to a tough opponent in Matteo Berrettini.

However, Norrie has a great affinity with Indian Wells and after comfortably dispatching of Luca Nardi in the first round, he showed plenty of grit and determination to come from a set down to beat Lehecka.

Next up for Norrie is a battle with Paul, a player he has beaten in three of their four previous meetings, including on his way to this title in 2021 and en route to the semi-finals of Wimbledon the following year.

The problem for Norrie is the two players have not faced off since that fourth round showdown at SW19 in 2022 and their career trajectories have gone in different directions since then.

While Norrie has slipped down the world rankings, Paul has established himself as a top-class performer, reaching the semi-finals of Australian Open in 2023 as well as two further runs to Grand Slam quarter-finals.

The 27-year-old also reached the last four at this event 12 months ago where he found only Daniil Medvedev too hot despite taking the first set of that clash 6-1.

As the 10th seed this year, Paul received a bye in the first round and made light work of seeing off Tristan Boyer in round two, coming through 6-3 6-1 in little over an hour on court.

While Norrie, with all his Indian Wells pedigree, should push Paul a little harder, it is difficult to look beyond the Florida-based star hammering home the form and winning this one in straight sets.

Tommy Paul to win first set 6-3 - 4/1

Paul eventually blew away wildcard Boyer in round two, taking the second set 6-1, although he was made to work a little harder in the opener and it could be a similar story against Norrie.

Norrie will try to hang in there with Paul, just as he did against Lehecka, although he dropped his serve in the fourth game of that opening set and that was all it took for the Czech player to take it 6-3. 

One break of serve might be all that is required for Paul as well and it is worth noting that in the four previous meetings between these players, the first set has been taken either 6-3 or 6-4.

Just as he did against Boyer, Paul will expect to keep Norrie at arm's length and do not be surprised if he takes the opener 6-3, setting himself up for a straight-sets success to take him through to the fourth round where a potential reunion with Medvedev could await.

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Tommy Paul v Cameron Norrie odds

Tommy Paul - 3/10
Cameron Norrie - 5/2

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.