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Iga Swiatek v Naomi Osaka: Prediction, Tips and Odds

Wednesday marks the start of the second round at the French Open and the highlight on the women's side is top seed Iga Swiatek's clash with four-time Grand Slam champion Naomi Osaka.

Swiatek, the two-time defending champion at the French Open and 8/15 favourite to make it three titles on the spin, began her campaign with a 6-1 6-2 win over Leolia Jeanjean.

Osaka, meanwhile, was taken to three sets by Italian Lucia Bronzetti, eventually prevailing 6-1 4-6 7-5 to book her spot in the second round.

Swiatek is the player to beat in Paris in the coming weeks, but this is still a huge encounter to have so early in the tournament and Osaka will be desperate to upset the odds as she continues to find her feet on the WTA tour again after having her first child.

Iga Swiatek v Naomi Osaka

Iga Swiatek v Naomi Osaka betting tips and predictions

Iga Swiatek -6.5 on match handicap - 5/6

Swiatek is the red-hot favourite to win both this match and the French Open and it can, therefore, be tricky to find value in the match markets.

The Pole is 2/7 to win the match 2-0 but there could be value in the match handicap market, with Swiatek worth chancing at -6.5 on the handicap.

That means she must win at least seven games more than her opponent - which she did in her opener against Jeanjean, winning 12-3 across the two sets.

Meanwhile, in her three matches before that against Madison Keys, Coco Gauff and Aryna Sabalenka, Swiatek won 12-4, 12-7 and 12-5, so it is fair to say she has been in excellent form.

Those wins came at the end of the Italian Open, which was Swiatek's second European clay-court title of the season after she also won the Madrid Open at the start of May.

She is having a typically terrific time on the slower terrain and she should ease past Osaka in this second-round tussle.

Osaka was away from the game for more than a year and returned to the WTA tour at the Brisbane International at the start of 2024.

Since then there have been more highs than lows but a 12-9 win-loss record is not the most inspiring and she is unlikely to cause many problems for the in-form Swiatek.

The head-to-head between these players is evenly poised at 1-1 after Osaka triumphed in Toronto in 2019 and Swiatek won in Miami three years later.

A lot has changed since those meetings, though, and Swiatek has started to take the initiative on the WTA tour this year, so back her to win this match comfortably.

Under 8.5 games in first set - 10/11

How this game unfolds could depend on how it starts and Swiatek is unlikely to give Osaka much margin for error in the first set.

Swiatek was ruthless in her first set of the French Open against Jeanjean, winning six of the seven games.

And another good bet in this second-round match is the first set to feature eight games or fewer.

That was the case in three of Swiatek's six matches at the Italian Open and four of her six outings at the Madrid Open.

She is typically a fast-starter on her favoured surface and she knows victory in the first set will likely lead to victory given her superior stamina on the red terrain in Paris.

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Iga Swiatek v Naomi Osaka odds

Iga Swiatek - 1/16
Naomi Osaka -

View the full market and more odds for Iga Swiatek v Naomi Osaka on site

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.

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