Qinwen Zheng's resurgence continues, and she may yet give the home fans at the China Open something to shout about after overcoming Elise Mertens 7-5 6-2 to reach Sunday's showpiece.
The Beijing faithful have yet to cheer on a home winner of this tournament, either in the men's or women's game, while they have not even had a finalist to support at this level, although Chen Li was beaten in the showpiece back in 1996 when it was only tier IV.
Qinwen has, of course, broken that barrier after reaching the second WTA 1000 final of her career, with the first also coming in her home country in Wuhan back in 2024, when she went down in three sets to Aryna Sabalenka.
The 24-year-old will be determined to go one better, but standing in her way is one of the hottest players on the WTA Tour this season, Mirra Andreeva, who has made pretty serene progress through the tournament.
The French Open champion lost the first set of her China Open campaign but has since reeled off 10 on the bounce, culminating in her 6-2 6-2 destruction of Nikola Bartunkova in the semi-finals.
Qinwen Zheng v Mirra Andreeva Tips Summary
Best Bet - Over 21.5 Games @ 5/6
Alternative Bet - Qinwen Zheng to win 2-1 @ 4/1
Bet Builder - Qinwen Zheng +3.5 games, Over 8.5 Games in 1st Set, Over 0.5 Tie Breaks, Qinwen Zheng 5+ Double Faults @ 23/4
Qinwen Zheng v Mirra Andreeva Prediction
Best Bet: Over 21.5 Games @ 5/6
Andreeva is a clear favourite for Sunday's final, deservedly so given her form in 2026 as a whole and her largely serene passage to the showpiece. She lost her opening set but responded with two bagel sets and has since reeled off four straight-set victories.
However, the 19-year-old Russian may not get her way in the final, as she faces not only a resurgent Olympic champion, who has been showing the sort of form that took her to fourth in the world rankings on her return to action after elbow surgery, but also a partisan crowd.
It understandably took Qinwen a while to reach her peak after surgery, but a deep run at the US Open would have given her plenty of confidence, especially as eventual champion Elena Rybakina needed three sets to end her campaign in the quarter-finals.
While she has not been foot-perfect in this tournament, needing three sets in her first three completed matches as well as benefitting from a retirement in the third set in her second-round clash, she has been finding ways to win and has looked better and better through each round.
As a wildcard, Qinwen has also faced tougher opposition, having seen off three players ranked higher than Andreeva's highest-ranked opponent.
As impressive as Andreeva's semi-final victory was, she also had to fight through a tough quarter-final, winning two tie-breaks over Ekaterina Alexandrova.
With a partisan crowd behind her and a big serve and dominant forehand, Qinwen carries fearsome weapons that will likely see her win plenty of games and stretch out the final to at least 22. That could come in two close sets, but even more so if the match goes to a third.
Alternative Bet: Qinwen Zheng to win 2-1 @ 4/1
Qinwen Zheng has been improving with each game and looks to be the sternest test of Andreeva's title credentials so far, and a price of 13/8 for the win is certainly tempting.
However, Andreeva will not go down without a fight, and this match could easily go to a deciding set, particularly with the Russian having shown her return prowess throughout the tournament and being capable of giving Qinwen plenty of problems on serve.
With both players operating at a high level, a chance is taken on the 2024 Australian Open finalist upsetting the odds with the vociferous home support behind her.
Having beaten Andreeva in their only previous meeting almost two years ago to the day in Beijing when she came from behind to win 5-7 6-0 6-4, another three-set success looks appealing at a big price.
Qinwen Zheng v Mirra Andreeva Bet Builder Tip
- Qinwen Zheng +3.5 games
- Over 8.5 Games in 1st Set
- Over 0.5 Tie Breaks
- Qinwen Zheng 5+ Double Faults
Pays 23/4
With Qinwen Zheng fancied to win, a 3.5-game start on the handicap kicks off the Bet Builder, while a tight first set is expected as the second leg.
There were 12 games in the first set of their only previous meeting, while all but one of Qinwen's first sets have involved at least nine games - three of which have been decided by a tie-break, with her semi-final success going 7-5 in the opener.
Three of Andreeva's opening sets have hit nine games, and as previously mentioned, the Russian's quarter-final win came courtesy of two tie-breaks, so at least one more between two in-form players seems worth chancing.
While Qinwen's first serve is a huge weapon, she remains prone to double faults and has served 26 already in reaching the final.
Against a returner of the calibre of Andreeva, there will be plenty of pressure on her second serve on Sunday, particularly as her first serve numbers are on the low side, with just 47 per cent successfully in during her semi-final success.
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Key Match Stats
- After losing her first set of the tournament, Mirra Andreeva has won 10 on the bounce to reach the final
- Qinwen Zheng was taken to three sets in each of her first four matches but has won the last two in straight sets
- Andreeva's win over Nikola Bartunkova in the semi-finals was her 50th of the season, matching Jessica Pegula for the most on the WTA Tour
- The 19-year-old Russian has forced 25 breaks of serve so far in the tournament to take her season tally to 301, the most on tour
- Qinwen Zheng has already spent the most time on court in a single tour-level event of any player - 13 hours and 33 minutes
- The home hope has also hit the most winners at a single event at this level with 219
Read more tennis betting tips and predictions on site.
This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
