Novak Djokovic v Alexander Zverev: Prediction, Tips and Odds

Novak Djokovic stunned Carlos Alcaraz to reach the Australian Open semi-finals, moving closer to a record-breaking 25th Grand Slam singles title, and now he faces Alexander Zverev on Friday with a place in the Melbourne Park final on the line.

The Serb was the underdog for his quarter-final clash with Alcaraz on Tuesday, but he rolled back the years to stun the Spaniard in four hugely entertaining sets and he now has an 11th Australian Open title firmly in his sights.

Zverev, meanwhile, has quietly eased through to this stage, chalking up three straight-sets victories before requiring four sets against both Ugo Humbert and Tommy Paul.

The German world no.2, who finished the 2024 season in fine form, is bidding for a third Grand Slam final appearance.

Following his marvellous quarter-final performance, Djokovic is 4/7 to seal his spot in another Grand Slam final, while Zverev is 11/8 to claim the victory.

Novak Djokovic v Alexander Zverev betting tips and predictions

Alexander Zverev to win - 11/8

Djokovic continues to defy his advancing years in Melbourne and, after a brilliant win over Alcaraz where he looked as good as ever, the Serb is going to take some stopping in his pursuit of an 11th Australian Open crown.

Whether it's thanks to the move to bring Andy Murray into his team, or Djokovic's undeniable mental strength when it comes to Grand Slams, he appears to have rediscovered a level which most thought he might never again reach.

However, while the Serb was the outsider for his quarter-final match, he is now odds-on to progress at the expense of a genuinely top-class rival in Zverev, who appears to be at the peak of his powers and is being shown plenty of respect in the betting as a result.

The German has come up short at the business end of Grand Slams and his two final appearances - at the 2020 US Open and last year's French Open - saw him fold from winning positions, so he does have questions to answer when it comes to mentality.

But, while Djokovic's defensive brilliance will force the 27-year-old to commit errors, Zverev has shown an ability to go toe-to-toe with the 37-year-old in big tournaments, taking down Djokovic at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021 and at the ATP Finals that same year.

Djokovic leads the head-to-head 8-4, but they've split the last four meetings and haven't clashed since 2022 in ATP competition since 2023, when the Serb won in Cincinnati.

Zverev is blessed with a big serve which will allow him to win cheap points - something which Alcaraz struggled to do - and he'll be full of confidence after a great end to last season which included a title at the Paris Masters.

Where once the best-of-five format would've favoured Djokovic, the Serb has been managing various injury problems over the Melbourne fortnight and the longer the match, the more it could swing in Zverev's favour.

Over 23.5 Match Total Aces - 10/11

While Djokovic won in straight sets in their most recent meeting, these two have a habit of becoming embroiled in long contests and that's reflected in a 40.5 total games line, which suggests the semi-final will feature at least four sets if not five.

Their sole Australian Open meeting, in the 2021 quarter-finals, ended in four sets and four of their five subsequent meetings went to a decider, including at the 2021 US Open.

The best way to profit from a long match could be to back over 23.5 aces.

Zverev's serve was not at its best against Paul, but he thundered in 19 aces in his last-16 triumph over Humbert, while Djokovic has averaged 12 aces per match in Melbourne this year.

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Novak Djokovic v Alexander Zverev odds

Novak Djokovic - 4/7
Alexander Zverev - 11/8

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.