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Miami Open Men's: Prediction, Tips and Odds

No male player has completed the Sunshine Double since Novak Djokovic achieved the rare feat in 2016 but Carlos Alcaraz is the favourite to do just that when the ATP Miami Open begins on Wednesday.

After a spell of humdrum results, Alcaraz found top form in California last week, brushing off fitness concerns to retain his Indian Wells title in a run which included victories over Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev.

Djokovic's Miami absence means that Alcaraz is the 2/1 favourite at the Hard Rock Stadium with Sinner, who is also harbouring injury concerns, a 5/2 shot to go one better than he did when beaten by Medvedev last season.

It's 11/2 that Medvedev successfully defends his Miami title while it's 14/1 bar the top three in the market.

Miami Open Men's betting tips and predictions

Alex de Minaur to win Miami Open - 18/1

Having gone without a title since winning Wimbledon in July of last year, Alcaraz's return to form was long overdue for the Spaniard, who had been battling to find his best tennis after underwhelming performances at the US and Australian Opens.

A champion in Miami in 2022, the 20-year-old is the obvious starting point for punters as he goes in search of the elusive Sunshine Double and he was surprised with his fitness levels in Indian Wells having initially considered himself short of match practice.

That's a concern for his rivals but it could be asking a bit much of Alcaraz to win another six matches in the stifling Florida heat, with soaring temperatures likely to test the competitors' physical limitations.

Sinner, Australian Open champion and the standout performer of the season so far, was left nursing wrist and leg injuries following his Indian Wells semi-final loss to Alcaraz so he too could struggle to go the distance at the Hard Rock.

Medvedev has never successfully defended a title so it could pay to go with a couple at bigger odds starting with Alex de Minaur, who has been enjoying a hugely productive start to his 2024 campaign.

Aussie ace De Minaur is one of the fittest players on the ATP World Tour and he's also been among the most consistent operators on the circuit this season, winning 17 of his 22 matches, reaching the final of the Rotterdam Open and winning the Mexican Open.

De Minaur beat a difficult list of opponents in Acapulco, seeing off Stefanos Tsitsipas, Jack Draper and Casper Ruud to claim the title, and the next step for the 25-year-old world no.10 is to start contending at Masters 1000 level.

For all that the big names have dominated in this event, John Isner and Hubert Hurkacz were shock recent winners and De Minaur, who has a negotiable top-half draw despite a possible semi-final clash with Alcaraz, is playing well enough to add his name to that list.

Tommy Paul to win the Miami Open - 40/1

With question marks over Sinner's fitness, it could pay to look elsewhere for value in the bottom half and while Medvedev will again have his backers, the Russian faces a potentially tough run of matches to reach the latter rounds.

Tommy Paul could face an early meeting with Sinner - the pair are on track to clash in the fourth round - but the steadily progressive American has the potential to cause problems for the Italian if they both reach that stage.

After a slow start to the year in Australia, Paul found his feet in his homeland, winning the Dallas Open then reaching the final of the Delray Beach Open, where he ran out of steam against close friend and compatriot Taylor Fritz.

He looked in superb touch in Indian Wells, beating promising Alex Michelsen, in-form Ugo Humbert, Djokovic's conqueror Luca Nardi and a high-class rival in Ruud before pushing Medvedev to a deciding set.

Paul needs to find a bit more this week but he's based in Florida, so conditions are unlikely to faze him and he boasts progressive Miami Open form having reached the third round in 2022 and the fourth round last season.

Miami Open Men's odds

Carlos Alcaraz - 2/1
Jannik Sinner - 5/2
Daniil Medvedev - 11/2
Alexander Zverev -14/1
Alex de Minaur -18/1
Taylor Fritz -22/1
Holger Rune -25/1

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.

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