Matteo Berrettini and Cameron Norrie were once used to competing at the back end of Grand Slam competitions but their steady decline means they must now meet in the first round of the Australian Open.
Former world number six Berrettini was runner-up to Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon in 2021 and he was also an Australian Open semi-finalist as recently as 2022, while former world number eight Norrie made the last four of Wimbledon in 2022 and is a Masters 1000 champion.
But the pair have now dropped outside of the world’s top 30, with injuries and a lack of belief playing its part, and this represents a massive occasion for both players.
Berrettini showed signs of a resurgence at the back end of last season, claiming titles at the Swiss Open and the Austrian Open, and he may have too many weapons for Norrie.
The Brit is without silverware since winning the Rio Open in February 2023, although he did make the fourth round of last season’s Australian Open with a victory over 11th seed Casper Ruud the highlight.
The winner of this contest would face either Zhizhen Zhang or 13th seed Holger Rune in what would be a blockbuster second-round clash.
Matteo Berrettini to win & both players to win a set - 5/4
If fully wound-up it is difficult to see how the power-serving of Berrettini won’t prevail and there were plenty of positive signs from his comeback appearance at the Brisbane International, where he took the opening set against eighth seed Jordan Thomspon before his lack of match sharpness told.
However, that should have blown away the cobwebs and it is likely that Berrettini was saving some with this Grand Slam in mind, so an improved display should be anticipated.
Norrie has played two tournaments already this season, making the quarter-final in Hong Kong in his season-opener, but a 6-2 6-3 defeat to Facundo Diaz Acosta at the ASB Classic was a backwards step.
Quite remarkably, these have met only once in the past and that came in the Queen’s final in 2021, with Berrettini triumphing 6-4 6-7 6-3.
But this could follow a similar narrative with Berrettini advancing to round two but both players getting a set on the board at 5/4.
The Italian is so explosive on serve, possessing so much power that he is a difficult man to break, and Norrie has suffered first-round exits in three of his six previous trips to Melbourne Park.
The Brit would have a good chance of coming through was he to force a deciding set but his lack of confidence in his own game makes it difficult to see that happening.
Berrettini will know that his fitness concerns means he has to wrap this up relatively quickly and backing the Italian to triumph 3-1 could also be of serious interest at 11/4.
Matteo Berrettini to serve 20+ aces - 5/6
Power serving remains the biggest weapon in Berrettini’s armoury and the former Grand Slam runner-up is likely to serve plenty of aces, with the 5/6 about him compiling 20 or more the approach for bettors to take.
Four or more sets should see Berrettini ease to that total given the quick conditions of the court, and his ace totals in his last three matches, given they were only best-of-three contests, have been 14, 16 and eight.
When Berrettini defeated Norrie 2-1 in sets in that Queen’s final four years ago, the Italian compiled 19 aces and he should be able to better that total under these pacier conditions in a more extended match.
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Matteo Berrettini - 4/9
Cameron Norrie - 7/4
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.