Madison Keys v Iga Swiatek: Prediction, Tips and Odds

Iga Swiatek is yet to compete in an Australian Open final, but the five-time Grand Slam champion is a red-hot favourite to reach Saturday's Melbourne Park showpiece at the expense of Madison Keys.

Second seed Swiatek has been in relentless form in pursuit of a sixth Grand Slam title and has crushed her last four opponents - Rebecca Sramkova, Emma Raducanu, Eva Lys and Emma Navarro - for the loss of just seven games in total.

The Pole, who assumed outright favouritism in the wake of her win over Navarro, is 1/6 to post a semi-final triumph over Keys, who is competing in her fifth Grand Slam semi-final.

The American, a gutsy winner over Elina Svitolina in her quarter-final match, is 4/1 to cause the upset.

Madison Keys v Iga Swiatek betting tips and predictions

Iga Swiatek to win and under 19.5 match games - 11/10

Swiatek has been awesome in Melbourne over the last few days, dominating every opponent and looking as good as she did in 2022 when she compiled a 37-match winning streak which included title wins on hard courts in Qatar, Indian Wells and Miami.

Having won four of her five Grand Slams on Parisian clay, Swiatek was at risk of being pigeonholed as a clay-court specialist and both Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff were shorter in the outright market prior to the start of this year's tournament despite being drawn alongside each other in the top half.

However, Swiatek's performances over the Australian fortnight have offered a timely reminder of her ability to produce top-class tennis on the quicker surface and it's worth remembering that she has won a US Open as well as six 1000 Series titles on hard courts.

Her approach has been ultra-positive and aggressive and, while pace on the ball would ordinarily suit Keys, the American has struggled to live with Swiatek in five previous clashes, four of which have been won by the Polish player.

While three of those four victories came on Swiatek's beloved clay, the world no.2 also won in Indian Wells in 2022 on a court which is roughly on par with Melbourne in terms of speed, dominating Keys in a 6-1 6-0 triumph which, given her current form, could be a sign of what's to come on Thursday.

Keys has undoubtedly faced the stronger rivals in the build-up to this contest, beating Danielle Collins and Elena Rybakina before taking out Svitolina, but the American has struggled to get over the line at the business end of Grand Slams, winning just one of four previous semi-finals.

Swiatek has only lost once in a Slam semi-final - on the Rod Laver Arena the 2022 Australian Open, at the hands of Collins - and she's been victorious in her four subsequent attempts to reach a Slam final.

Each of the Pole's five Melbourne matches have featured fewer than 18 games and she is expected to dismiss Keys with the minimum of fuss.

Iga Swiatek to win the first set 6-1 - 11/2

Keys is an experienced WTA Tour performer, but she has a habit of dropping her level and, if she gets off to a slow start, the first set could quickly go Swiatek's way.

A 6-0 victory is a 14/1 shot, but there will be nerves for the Pole, too, so the most attractive first-set correct-score bet looks to be a 6-1 win in favour of the favourite, something she has managed in three of five clashes with her American opponent.

Keys started slowly in a 3-6 6-3 6-4 turnaround against Svitolina in the quarter-finals, while last-16 opponent Rybakina won the second set of their clash 6-1, so there's potential for the underdog to throw in a shocker, which would bring a one-sided scoreline into play. 

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Madison Keys v Iga Swiatek odds

Madison Keys - 4/1
Iga Swiatek - 1/6

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.