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Pavel Kotov v Jannik Sinner: Prediction, Tips and Odds

Jannik Sinner has recorded two straight-set wins over Christopher Eubanks and Richard Gasquet and the Italian world number two will be out to repeat the feat against Pavel Kotov.

Sinner claimed his maiden Grand Slam title at the Australian Open in January and he looks a genuine title contender in Paris, where his best run was a quarter-final effort in 2020.

The 22-year-old should have plenty of major successes ahead of him in the future and it would be a surprise if he were to fall victim to Kotov, who he defeated 6-2 7-5 in Madrid last month.

Sinner withdrew from that tournament in the Spanish capital prior to his quarter-final clash with Felix Auger Aliassime and then skipped competition in Rome, sparking concerns about his inclusion at the French Open.

The Italian has looked in decent fettle in Paris though and victory over Kotov would see him make the fourth round of the French Open for the fourth time in five previous attempts.

Pavel Kotov v Jannik Sinner

Pavel Kotov v Jannik Sinner betting tips and predictions

Pavel Kotov +8.5 games on the handicap - 1/1

Sinner has looked in complete control of things in Paris so far, easing past Eubanks and Gasquet with 3-0 victories to suggest he is free of injury and ready to do himself justice.

The Italian is 1/33 to get past world number 56 Kotov and is 1/2 to do so again in straight sets, which looks like the likely scenario.

However, even a straight-sets success over Kotov would make it difficult to successfully cover a handicap start of -8.5 games, especially given the Russian’s talent and temperament.

When these two locked horns in Madrid last month, Sinner triumphed 6-2 7-5, although it is an experience that would have taught Kotov plenty while the Italian may have been more confident in the position his game was in then.

This season Kotov has made the semi-finals on the clay in Marrakech and reached the quarter-finals in Lyon, highlighting his attributes on the slower surface.

Wins over British number one Cameron Norrie and 2015 French Open champion Stan Wawrinka should give Kotov the motivation to go and express himself against one of the best in the world.

With that in mind, taking Kotov to cover a handicap start of +8.5 games may be the approach to take. 

There have been six tiebreaks across his last four matches - there were two in his four-set triumph over Wawrinka - and if this match features one of those then the handicap must go close to winning.

Although Sinner has yet to drop a set, both Eubanks and Gasquet would have narrowly covered a handicap start of +8.5 games and Kotov, in his current form, is arguably a more dangerous clay-court performer.

Jannik Sinner 3+ double faults - 5/4

Sinner is one of the biggest servers on the ATP Tour and with that added power more mistakes can come on his first serve.

That can also lead to the occasional double fault as he attempts to keep the pressure on his opponent with a big second serve.

It is a frequent mistake in Sinner’s game but it does come with his style of play and, while he won’t make too many, he looks likely to have at least three double faults which is available at 5/4.

Sinner had four double faults in his opening-round win over Eubanks, who had nine of his own, while he made three more in his second-round success over Gasquet.

With the possibility of this contest even lasting at least four sets, Sinner looks a nice price for three more double faults against an improving player with a strong clay-court game.

Read more tennis betting tips and predictions on site.

Pavel Kotov v Jannik Sinner odds

Pavel Kotov - 14/1
Jannik Sinner -

View the full market and more odds for Pavel Kotov v Jannik Sinner on site.

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.

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