Jessica Pegula v Aryna Sabalenka: Prediction, Tips & Odds

It’s difficult to dispute that Jessica Pegula and Aryna Sabalenka deserve their places in the women’s title match in the final Grand Slam tournament of the season and the pair should produce an exciting encounter.

It’s a first major singles final for Buffalo native Pegula, who will be desperate to give a good account of herself in her home state. She can count herself a shade fortunate to have edged past semi-final opponent Karolina Muchova, but there is nobody on the women’s tour who is playing as well as Sabalenka right now.

The oddsmakers know that, of course, and that’s why they had made her the pre-tournament title favourite ahead of world number one Iga Swiatek. And Sabalenka hasn’t let their judgement down, scything a path past six opponents to reach the final.

Pegula will take heart from ousting top seed Swiatek in the quarter-finals, but in all likelihood the Toronto champion’s final task could be tougher again. Sabalenka defeated Pegula 6-3 7-5 in the Cincinnati final last month and the crowd favourite on Saturday will do well to avenge that loss.

Jessica Pegula v Aryna Sabalenka betting tips and predictions

Double result: Aryna Sabalenka to win first set and match - 4/7

Jessica Pegula had reached the quarter-finals of all four Grand Slam tournaments by last summer, but getting past the last-eight mark in major singles competition had been difficult for the American until this week.

She broke new ground when beating Swiatek 6-2 6-4 to set up a semi-final date with Muchova, but she went close to exiting her home Slam against the Czech before fighting back to triumph 1-6 6-4 6-2.

Pegula’s first-service winners in her first set against Muchova was an agonisingly low 36 percent, so it hardly augurs well for her chances of a fast start against an opponent who is becoming more resolute with age and experience.

Sabalenka is still only 26 years old but she is just about approaching her physical prime as a player, so the 30-year-old Pegula looks to have much to do to make a mockery of the prices and claim her first Slam singles crown.

There is hope for the American, however. Muchova was playing so well that Pegula actually worked wonders to win their second set, after which she won set three comfortably.

And while Sabalenka is the one to beat in women’s tennis right now, should Pegula get off to another slow start the second seed is unlikely to be any tougher to overcome in set two than Muchova was.

But even if it is all square at 1-1 after two sets, winning set three could offer another mountain to climb for Pegula because Sabalenka is no stranger at kicking on again in response to a setback.

Therefore, with Sabalenka priced on the short side at 1/3 to collect her third Slam singles title, backing her to win the first set and lift the trophy at a bigger price is an acceptable alternative.

Under 9.5 games in first set - 4/6

Pegula, who took a long while to settle in her first major semi-final, didn’t know what had hit her when starting out against Muchova and it may be a similar story against Sabalenka, who will be intent on adding to her two Australian Open titles.

Sabalenka lost the first set in her third-round clash with Ekaterina Alexandrova in New York City, but trailing early on that occasion may have been more of an unexpected occurrence.

Pegula fell behind against Muchova due to a combination of tension on her part and superb play from her opponent. And with this being the American’s first Slam final, there looks a reasonable chance that the outsider may again struggle to settle.

It’s 4/6 that fewer than 10 games are contested in the opening set on Saturday. And given that Sabalenka, who also beat Swiatek 6-3 6-3 on the way to taking the Cincinnati title, is more than adept when it comes to forging an early lead, that price is difficult to quibble with.

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Jessica Pegula v Aryna Sabalenka odds

Jessica Pegula - 12/5
Aryna Sabalenka - 1/3

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.