Jannik Sinner v Tommy Paul: Prediction, Tips and Odds

Monday sees the conclusion of the fourth round of the US Open and two players ranked in the top 15 in the world will go head-to-head, with world number one Jannik Sinner taking on Tommy Paul.

Italian Sinner began his campaign with a 2-6 6-2 6-1 6-2 victory over American MacKenzie McDonald before securing routine straight sets wins over Alex Michelsen and Christopher O’Connell.

American Paul is one of the last remaining hopes for the home fans to lift the coveted trophy and has overcome stern opposition in the previous rounds - including a 6-7 (5-7) 6-3 6-1 7-6 (7-3) victory over Canadian Gabriel Diallo last time out.

Jannik Sinner v Tommy Paul betting tips and predictions

Jannik Sinner to win 3-0 - 6/5

Paul is hoping to become the first American male to win the US Open since Andy Roddick defeated Juan Carlos Ferrero in straight sets in the final of 2003, but the 27-year-old may fall short against an in-form Sinner.

Paul has never progressed past the fourth round at Flushing Meadows since making his debut appearance in 2015 and he has failed to dominate opponents so far in this tournament, dropping a set in two of the previous three rounds, while his other victory, over Max Purcell, came after the Australian was forced to retire.

Sinner, meanwhile, headed into this competition after beating American Francis Tiafoe in the final of the ATP Masters 1000 Cincinnati - his fifth title of the year and 15th overall - and the Italian’s performances at the US Open in 2024 have seen him drop just one set.

The world number one has beaten Paul in two of their previous three head-to-heads - including in their sole hard-court meeting at the semi-final stage of the ATP Masters 1000 Canada in 2023 - and his glistening form this year should help steer him towards another comfortable victory.

Tommy Paul to win under 15.5 games - 4/5

Given Sinner’s performances this year, Paul could be in for a very difficult day at the office and he may not be able to take too many games off of the Italian in this encounter.

Sinner has not given away more than 11 games in any of his three matches so far at this tournament. Indeed, the 23-year-old has only lost 13 games across the last two rounds combined.

Paul has never taken more than 16 games in a match against Sinner - with his best tally coming in 2022 when he won exactly that amount in a two sets to one defeat.

With Sinner currently in top form, it is hard to see Paul bettering or even matching that tally on Monday.

Jannik Sinner over 4.5 breaks of serve - 4/7

Sinner’s dominant performances have been highlighted by his impressive break-point tally in this year’s competition and he should be able to frustrate Paul when returning from the baseline.

No player has converted more of their break points at the 2024 US Open than the Italian with 21, with only Russian Daniil Medvedev matching this tally.

Paul was particularly poor on his own serve against Diallo in the previous round, with just 58.5% of his total points won coming from his own service games and, if he can’t raise those levels on Monday, then Sinner could have a field day on the return.

Sinner could certainly represent good value to break his opponent at least five times in the match.

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Jannik Sinner v Tommy Paul odds

Jannik Sinner - 1/6
Tommy Paul - 4/1

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.