Jannik Sinner v Jordan Thompson: Prediction, Tips and Odds

Jannik Sinner tops the seedings in Cincinnati and, although the Italian has struggled to produce his brilliant best in recent months, he is still very much a title contender and should come past a last-16 test with Jordan Thompson.

Sinner suffered a quarter-final exit against Andrey Rublev in Montreal last week but he opened his Cincinnati account with a 6-4 7-5 victory over American ace Alex Michelsen.

With no title triumph since winning in Halle in June, Sinner will be determined to make the most of the opportunity in Cincinnati, especially with Novak Djokovic taking a well-earned rest following his gold in Paris.

There may be bigger tests to come but Sinner should not be taking the challenge of Thompson lightly, as the Australian has found his best form at the perfect time in the season.

The world number 32 was runner-up in a hard-court event in Atlanta in July while he has since made the quarter-final in Washington, showing some consistency that has often been lacking.

On his day Thompson can mix it with the best and, while he is likely to fall short in this challenge, this may be an ideal time to take on Sinner, who has had his injury woes this season.

Jannik Sinner v Jordan Thompson betting tips and predictions

Jordan Thompson +4.5 games on the handicap - 10/11

Despite recording a straight-sets success over Michelsen in his opening assignment, the American still covered the handicap and a start of +4.5 games may underestimate Thompson.

If the Australian can take one set to a tiebreak then the handicap should oblige and Thompson does excel on serve, something which has been evident in his opening two assignments.

Thompson has faced only eight breakpoint opportunities despite overcoming two top-20 performers in Ugo Humbert and Sebastian Baez, which should stand him in good stead for this challenge.

A clash with the world number one evidently requires more but Sinner is nowhere near the level he was at the start of the season, highlighted by quarter-final exits at Wimbledon and in Montreal.

This is a first meeting between these players but Thompson should be feeling pretty confident about his well-being, having lost only five of his last 17 matches.

That is a good strike-rate for a player ranked outside the world’s top 30 and he has no fear against big scalps, having defeated Holger Rune, Taylor Fritz and Jack Draper since the beginning of June.

Winning looks beyond Thompson but he can successfully cover a handicap start of +4.5 games, with a 6-4 6-4 defeat enough to see bettors rewarded. Breaking the Australian’s serve while he is in this mood won’t be a simple task for Sinner.

Jannik Sinner to serve 10+ aces - 12/5

With Thompson fancied to keep up with Sinner in the early exchanges, the Italian may have to serve well to reverse the pressure and that could contribute to plenty of aces coming from him.

Sinner served nine aces in his opening-round win over Michelsen while in his three-set defeat to Rublev in Montreal previously he made 10.

Humbert fired in eight aces against Thompson in round one, a match he went on to lose, and the Frenchman’s serve wouldn’t be close to the ferocity of Sinner’s.

That suggests Sinner’s potent weapon should be able to cause plenty of problems for Thompson, especially given that the best of returners struggle to nullify it when things are on-song.

In Sinner’s last 10 matches, he has hit double-figure aces on six occasions while two of those other matches featured nine. That suggests he may go close to that total again, especially if this was to go the distance, and at odds of 12/5 it is hard to ignore. 

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Jannik Sinner v Jordan Thompson odds

Jannik Sinner - 1/7
Jordan Thompson - 9/2

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.