Jannik Sinner v Casper Ruud: Prediction, Tips and Odds

Jannik Sinner will be hoping to cap off what has been a stellar season with victory in the ATP Finals and he can blast his way past semi-final opponent Casper Ruud.

Sinner has claimed seven tour titles in what has been a sublime 2024, highlighted by his two Grand Slam titles at the Australian Open and the US equivalent, with him winning 68 of his 74 matches this season.

Being backed by his home crowd in Turin is certainly another advantageous factor and that is how it proved as he topped the Ilie Nastase Group, winning all three matches against Alex De Minaur, Taylor Fritz and Daniil Medvedev in straight sets.

Ruud could finish only second behind Alexander Zverev in the John Newcombe Group but he will believe he can be competitive having recorded wins over Carlos Alcaraz and Andrey Rublev.

However, the Norwegian has to raise his level considerably to live with the powers of Sinner, who is on a 12-match unbeaten run and in irresistible form.

Jannik Sinner v Casper Ruud betting tips and predictions

Jannik Sinner -5.5 games on the handicap - 4/5

Sinner has won all three previous meetings with Ruud in straight sets, the latest of which came in an exhibition event in January, and it is 1/4 about the Italian repeating that feat.

That looks like the likely outcome given Sinner has already recorded 2-0 wins over De Minaur, Fritz and Medvedev, with none of the six games he has contested even going to a tiebreak.

That highlights Sinner’s dominance and, after being pushed in three gruelling sets in his final group game against Rublev, Ruud may feel those exertions against the best player in the world.

With that considered, it could be worth backing Sinner to successfully concede a handicap of -5.5 games at 4/5 - a 6-3 6-3 win or better would yield the rewards.

Sinner’s home crowd in Turin are offering more than a helping hand and that will make life even more difficult for Ruud who, despite making the semi-finals, has lost 10 of his last 14 matches.

The Norwegian is capable on any terrain but he would be at his very best on a slower surface and under these conditions Sinner has an even greater edge.

In two of Sinner’s three wins over Ruud, he would have covered this handicap and it can be argued that he is in better touch now than ever before.

Sinner’s three wins in the group stage of the competition were by five games, four games and five games, but Ruud had a tricky run to the final four and those exertions may take their toll.

Under 0.5 breaks of serve for Casper Ruud - 4/5

With Sinner expected to bulldoze his way past Ruud, it may also be worth backing the Italian world number one not to be broken, given how irresistibly well he is serving.

In Sinner’s three group wins over De Minaur, Fritz and Medvedev, his opponents carved out a total of only four break-point opportunities and it is going to be difficult for Ruud to create chances against the serve.

If the Italian gets on top early, as expected, he should go through the gears and wrap things up quickly and it is difficult to see how Ruud can lay a glove on such a dominant serve.

Sinner is sure to serve plenty of aces and likes to keep points short and sweet on serve, so take a chance on him sailing through to the final without losing a service game.

Ruud has done exceptionally well to make it this far, especially given his inconsistent form in the build up to the season-ending finale, but this looks like being the point in which he bows out.

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Jannik Sinner v Casper Ruud odds

Jannik Sinner - 1/20
Casper Ruud - 10/1

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.