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Jannik Sinner v Carlos Alcaraz: Prediction, Tips and Odds

Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz are set to meet in a blockbuster clash at ATP Indian Wells on Saturday with both players heading into the semi-final in red-hot form.

Australian Open champion Sinner has been the player of the season to date on the ATP Tour, as not only has he landed two titles, including a maiden Grand Slam success in Melbourne, but he is also unbeaten in all 16 of his matches in 2024.

World number two Alcaraz has started the season in a more understated fashion, but he is the defending champion in Indian Wells and he appears to be rediscovering his best form in the Californian sunshine.

Jannik Sinner v Carlos Alcaraz

Jannik Sinner v Carlos Alcaraz betting tips and predictions

Jannik Sinner to win 2-1 - 11/4

Italian ace Sinner entered 2024 far from being an unknown, with 10 ATP Tour titles, a Grand Slam semi-final and a further four quarter-final appearances to his name, but the 22-year-old has taken his game to a new level since the turn of the year.

Sinner's success at the Australian Open appears to have been the catalyst for this shift in mentality, as he beat Novak Djokovic in the semi-finals in Melbourne before coming from two sets down to defeat Daniil Medvedev in the showpiece final.

Lesser players may have suffered something of a comedown after claiming a first Grand Slam title, but Sinner followed up the success with another victory, this time at last month's Rotterdam Open.

Now the world number three has taken his form stateside and he has been in devastating nick at Indian Wells, reaching the semi-finals without dropping a set after recording victories over Thanasi Kokkinakis, Jan-Lennard Struff, Ben Shelton and Jiri Lehecka.

That has set up this clash with Alcaraz and the Spaniard will certainly mark a step up in quality for Sinner - the Aussie Open champion has won the last two meetings between the pair and leads 4-3 in their overall head-to-head.

Sinner is 4/6 to continue his winning streak on Saturday, with Alcaraz considered the 6/5 outsider, a rare thing for the two-time Grand Slam winner, especially at Indian Wells.

Alcaraz certainly enjoys this ATP Masters 1000 event, as this is the third year in a row that he has reached the semi finals, and he beat Sinner at this stage last season on his way to lifting the title.

Like Sinner, Alcaraz has enjoyed a relatively serene passage through to the last four, avenging his Australian Open defeat to Alexander Zverev along the way, although he did drop a set at his opening match against Italian Matteo Arnaldi.

History at Indian Wells is on the side of Alcaraz, but recent meetings between the pair have gone the way of Sinner, who may just about have enough to edge this one, but it could prove a gruelling three-set battle.

These two players are used to going the distance against each other, they battled it out in three sets at last year's Miami Open - Sinner prevailing on that occasion - while they also contested a five-set epic at the US Open in 2022, a match that Alcaraz edged.

First set to finish 6-3 to either player - 11/4

Although this should prove a gruelling contest between two athletes at the peak of their powers, it wouldn't be too surprising to see either player win the opening set in relatively routine fashion.

Of the eight sets he has contested in California this week, Sinner has won four by a 6-3 scoreline, including the opening sets of his victories over Kokkinakis, Struff and Lehecka.

Sinner also won the second set against Lehecka 6-3, while he recorded at least one set success by that scoreline in six of his seven matches at the Australian Open, including in the deciding set of the final against Medvedev.

It is 5/1 that Sinner wins the first set of this semi-final 6-3, while Alcaraz also tends to favour that outcome, with four of the last five sets he has contested at Indian Wells finishing 6-3 in his favour.

The 20-year-old is 15/2 to take the opening set by that scoreline on Saturday, but given both players’ tendency to favour a 6-3 scoreline, it could be worth backing either to win the first set 6-3, which is available at odds of 11/4.

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Jannik Sinner v Carlos Alcaraz odds

Jannik Sinner - 4/6
Carlos Alcaraz -

View the full market and more odds for Jannik Sinner v Carlos Alcaraz on site

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.

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