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Jack Draper v Carlos Alcaraz: Prediction, Tips and Odds

Jack Draper has battled to the round of 16 in the Australian Open and the British no.1 will need to dig deep once again when he takes on French Open and Wimbledon champion Carlos Alcaraz in the Rod Laver Arena on Sunday.

Draper has been taken to five sets in wins over unseeded Argentinian Mariano Navone and two home hopefuls in Thanasi Kokkinakis and Aleksandar Vukic, showing both mental and physical fortitude to advance to the fourth round.

His reward - if it can indeed be called that - is a clash with world no.3 Alcaraz, who has eased through with wins over Alexander Shevchenko, Yoshihito Nishioka and Nuno Borges as he attempts to seal the career Grand Slam in next Sunday's final.

With fatigue expected to come into play, Draper is the 7/1 outsider with Alcaraz just 1/12 to prevail in the match and 4/5 to post a straight-sets triumph.

Jack Draper v Carlos Alcaraz

Jack Draper v Carlos Alcaraz betting tips and predictions

Carlos Alcaraz to win & over 31.5 total games - 10/11

Draper has shown his mettle in the early rounds in Melbourne but he's spent 12 hours and 38 minutes on court in the 2025 Australian Open, while his last-16 opponent Alcaraz has been in action for a shade over six hours and will be far fresher than that Briton.

That doesn't mean that Draper can't win and he has experience of beating Alcaraz - he was victorious in their most recent meeting on grass at Queen's last year 7-6 6-3 - but it's a massive ask for the Sutton man to be at his best less than 48 hours after beating Vukic in a fifth-set tiebreak.

The pair have met three times in total and Alcaraz prevailed on the first two occasions, in three sets on a Basel hard court in October 2022 and then again on the surface in Indian Wells the following season when Draper was forced to retire when trailing 6-2 2-0.

Given that Draper has been competitive in the two matches he's completed against Alcaraz, he'll be hopeful of causing him problems, but the evidence in three Melbourne matches suggests that the 21-year-old Murcia man means business.

Alcaraz won in straight sets in round one against Shevchenko, then he beat Nishioka in the same fashion without suffering a break of serve, then Borges took him to four sets but also failed to break in a match which finished 6-2 6-4 6-7 6-2 in favour of the four-time Grand Slam champion.

He's been serving superbly and, after a moderate finish to 2024, looks back to something like his best, for all that a clash with a fully fit Draper rates a tougher test than he's had in Melbourne to date.

This round-of-16 tie could ultimately come down to how much Draper has left in the tank and whether he has the ability to consistently compete with Alcaraz in longer points. He has not been helped by the late-afternoon scheduling as the temperature begins to ramp up after a relatively cold first week.

While Alcaraz should book his place in the quarter-finals for the second consecutive season, Draper's battling qualities should keep him in the match for long enough to push the total games counter over the 31.5 line.

1st set total games over 12.5 - 9/2

Draper is likely to be at his most competitive in the early stages of this contest and the best value play could be to back the opening set to go all the way to a tiebreak, which looks a solid wager considering how well Alcaraz has been serving.

While Shevchenko managed to break the Spaniard twice in a row when his level inexplicably dropped in their first-round contest, he has been otherwise perfect on his own delivery.

Draper could find it harder to hold serve against such a great returner, but the 23-year-old went to a tiebreak in the opening set against Kokkinakis and the final two sets against Vukic, while he also won in a breaker when beating Alcaraz at Queen's.

Court conditions should quicken up as the mercury rises, particularly in the afternoon, and breaks of serve could be at a premium.

Read more tennis betting tips and predictions on site.

Jack Draper v Carlos Alcaraz odds

Jack Draper - 7/1
Carlos Alcaraz -
1/12

View the full market and more odds for Jack Draper v Carlos Alcaraz on site.

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.

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