Iga Swiatek vs Jasmine Paolini Tips, Predictions and Bet Builder

There have been plenty of clues ahead of Wimbledon in Bad Homburg and a semi-final showdown between former All England Club runner-up Jasmine Paolini and five-time Grand Slam champion Iga Swiatek could be a key piece of form.

This is a repeat of the 2024 French Open final, when Swiatek reigned supreme on her beloved clay to triumph in Paris for a fourth time, but a grass-court meeting could see the roles reversed.

On the back of that defeat, Paolini went on to make the Wimbledon final, again playing second fiddle, this time to Czech Republic’s Barbora Krejcikova.

However, that showed that Paolini has no problem finding her best form on the grass and the same may not be said for Swiatek, who is bidding to make her maiden WTA Tour final on the green stuff.

The Pole has slipped all the way from world number two to world number eight in little time, having failed to secure a single piece of silverware this season, and her French Open dominance came to an end with a semi-final defeat to Aryna Sabalenka earlier this month.

Straight-set wins over Victoria Azarenka and Ekaterina Alexandrova suggest Swiatek is starting to put her best foot forward, but second seed Paolini represents a much sterner test.

The Italian has quickly established herself as one of the most consistent performers on the WTA Tour - she won the Italian Open on home soil in Rome in May - and she impressed in earlier-round victories over Leylah Fernandez and Beatriz Haddad Maia.

Iga Swiatek vs Jasmine Paolini Tips Summary

Market	Tip	Odds
Match Result	Iga Swiatek	2/5
Best Bet	Jasmine Paolini	2/1
Bet Builder	Jasmine Paolini to win a set, 5+ aces for Iga Swiatek, Over 9.5 games in set one	9/2

Key Match Stats

• Swiatek has won all four previous meetings with Paolini, dropping only one set

• Paolini has won 10 of her last 13 grass-court matches

• Paolini has lost only two of her last 13 matches on all surfaces

• Only three of Paolini’s last 21 matches have gone to a deciding set

• Nine of Swiatek’s last 11 matches were decided in straight sets

Iga Swiatek vs Jasmine Paolini Prediction

Best Bet: Jasmine Paolini to win @ 2/1

Paolini has failed to overcome Swiatek in four previous meetings but two of those tussles came on the Pole’s formidable surface of clay, while this is set to be their first ever encounter on the grass.

Under these conditions, there is every chance that Paolini can snap the winless streak as she is a former Wimbledon finalist and has won 10 of her last 13 matches on the grass.

Swiatek, to date at least, has looked at her most vulnerable on grass and she is bidding to make her first WTA Tour final on the surface.

Throw in the fact that Swiatek has not secured silverware since beating Paolini in the French Open final last June, then the pressure is on for her to return to winning ways.

Both players have recorded a pair of straight-set wins to set up this last-four rumble, but Paolini created far more break-point opportunities in her wins over Fernandez and Hadda Maia than Swiatek conjured up in overcoming Azarenka and Alexandrova.

It may simply be that Paolini is able to adapt to this terrain better than Swiatek, whose five Wimbledon appearances have yielded only one quarter-final berth.

Aaron Ashley says:

Five-time Grand Slam champion Swiatek is far too classy to let her title drought continue but grass has caused her plenty of problems in the past in Paolini she meets a gritty battler who has a game well-suited to this surface.

Iga Swiatek vs Jasmine Paolini Bet Builder Tip

• Jasmine Paolini to win a set

• 5+ aces for Iga Swiatek

• Over 9.5 games in set one

  
  Pays 9/2

Paolini looks a bigger price than she merits for this semi-final, especially given her past exploits on the surface, and she can at least make Swiatek work hard for her rewards.

Swiatek will be relying on her serve to hold firm if she is to be successful and, having had six aces in her opening win over Azarenka before registering five more against Alexandrova, it remains a dangerous weapon.

Going over 9.5 games in what could be a tense start to proceedings between two of the WTA Tour’s elite also makes interest. Swiatek won the opening set in both of her tournament wins 6-4 while Paolini needed a tiebreak to get ahead against Fernandez and then clinched the first set 7-5 against Haddad Maia.

Aaron Ashley adds:

It is easy to envisage this pair cancelling one another out early, not wanting to give an inch to their rival, and it could be a gruelling battle to the finishing line. Swiatek may be rejuvenated but there is still enough for her to prove against a genuine elite grass-court player.

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Tactics and Form

Swiatek has made 26 finals on the WTA Tour, claiming 22 titles, five of which have been at Grand Slam level.

However, none of those title deciders have come on grass and that makes for an intriguing clash with Paolini, who was runner-up at Wimbledon last season.

The Italian does have to ignore the fact that she has yet to beat Swiatek in four meetings, but this surface represents her best chance of doing so and the fact she is currently four places higher in the rankings shows her consistency.

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.