Iga Swiatek v Aryna Sabalenka: Prediction, Tips and Odds

Having defeated Aryna Sabalenka to win the WTA Madrid two weeks ago, world number one Iga Swiatek will be hoping to repeat the feat against her fiercest rival and clinch more silverware in Rome.

This is a title Swiatek has already won twice, reigning supreme in 2021 and 2022, and completing the hat-trick over Sabalenka would set her up nicely as she bids to land a fourth French Open crown next month.

The Polish phenomenon has already landed three titles this season and she is a long way ahead of the rest of the WTA Tour on this slower surface, which includes world number two Sabalenka.

That said, the Belarusian has beaten Swiatek before in a clay-court final - she recorded a three-set win over her in Madrid last season - and she will be looking to take some inspiration from that Masters 1000 victory.

Having gone on an 11-game winning streak and prevailing in all five of her Rome assignments in straight sets, Swiatek is 2/7 to triumph while Sabalenka is 11/4 to land the upset.

Iga Swiatek v Aryna Sabalenka betting tips and predictions

Iga Swiatek to win 2-0 - 4/5

Swiatek is world number one for a reason and the clay-court season is when the Polish superstar really comes into her own.

Despite still being only 22 years of age, Swiatek is a 20-time champion on the WTA Tour and four of those titles have come at Grand Slam level.

Eight of her title triumphs have come on clay, which includes three wins at the French Open, and she is a difficult player to overcome when playing on her favoured slower surface.

The Pole has lost only three of her last 35 matches, highlighting her dominance, and she heads into this final full of confidence following an 11-game winning streak.

All five of her wins in Rome have come via straight sets and that includes a convincing 6-4 6-3 victory over world number three Coco Gauff in her semi-final.

Sabalenka may feel she can provide a sterner challenge but she still trails 7-3 in their head-to-head battle and has lost four of their five clay-court meetings.

That includes a 5-7 6-4 6-7 defeat to Swiatek in the final of Madrid two weeks ago and, while the Pole has made serene progress to get to this stage, Sabalenka needed deciding sets in victories over Katie Volynets and Elina Svitolina.

Three of Swiatek’s last four wins over Sabalenka have come in straight sets and she can record another 2-0 win over the Belarusian, whose power-packed approach is less devastating on clay.

Aryna Sabalenka over 2.5 breaks of serve - 1/1

While Swiatek should have few concerns claiming the title, breaks of serve at both ends are likely and backing Sabalenka to break the Pole at least three times must make some appeal.

Sabalenka broke Swiatek five times in their Madrid final two weeks ago and the world number one has been broken in four of her five victories in Rome, so is not invincible despite her convincing overall form.

Even in her 6-1 6-3 victory over Madison Keys in the quarter-finals, Swiatek had to save 10 break-point opportunities, which shows her opponents are still creating chances against the serve.

Overcoming Swiatek on her favourite surface is going to be difficult but breaks of serve are a common occurrence in the women’s game and Sabalenka’s all-out attacking style is going to cause some problems.

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Iga Swiatek v Aryna Sabalenka odds

Iga Swiatek - 2/7
Aryna Sabalenka - 11/4

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.