Iga Swiatek v Aryna Sabalenka: Prediction, Tips and Odds

In a repeat of last year, women's world number one Iga Swiatek clashes with world number two Aryna Sabalenka in a blockbuster final at the Madrid Open.

12 months ago, it was Sabalenka who prevailed 6-3 3-6 6-3 - but another victory for the Australian Open winner is not a foregone conclusion.

Swiatek has looked the stronger of the two in the Spanish capital, dropping just one set and losing a total of just 20 games en route to the final.

She took down Madison Keys 6-1 6-3 in the last four, while Sabalenka secured her spot in the final with a three-set triumph over fourth seed Elena Rybakina.

Iga Swiatek v Aryna Sabalenka betting tips and predictions

Iga Swiatek to win 2-0 - 5/6

It has not been a breathtaking start to the season for Iga Swiatek, but the Pole has upped her game recently.

After winning the WTA Indian Wells and reaching the last four at the Stuttgart Open, she has taken things to the next level at the Madrid Open.

She reeled off three successive straight sets wins to start the tournament before dropping her first set in her quarter-final with Beatriz Haddad Maia.

But Swiatek won the next two sets 6-0 6-2 to progress and then lost only four games in her contest with American Keys in the semi-finals.

She looks back to her best and it is no secret she is a force on clay, having won 38 of her 41 matches on the slower surface in 2022 and 2023.

And the Madrid Open is the only big European clay-court event she is yet to win, so there should be no shortage of determination heading into this final.

Swiatek would tie with Rybakina for the most match wins (30) and tournament wins (three) if she were to win the final against Sabalenka and she can do so in style.

Swiatek leads the head-to-head with Sabalenka 6-3 and her opponent has shown signs of vulnerability in this tournament.

Despite making the final, second seed Sabalenka has won in straight sets just once in Madrid and was two points away from losing her semi-final with Rybakina, who won the first set of that match 6-1 before forcing successive tiebreaks.

Swiatek looks better-equipped for this contest and can prevail by winning in straight sets.

Iga Swiatek - 4.5 games on match handicap - 10/11

Not only does Swiatek look a good bet to win this match in straight sets, but she is also worth backing at -4.5 games on the handicap.

The Pole lost to Sabalenka in last year's Madrid Open final but comes into this final as the superior player and can show just how much stronger she is on this surface.

Sabalenka has dropped an eyewatering 60 games en route to the final in Madrid - the most to reach the women's singles final in Madrid since it began back in 2009.

It has been far from smooth sailing for Sabalenka, who was nearly knocked out by Rybakina and dropped sets against Danielle Collins, Robin Montgomery and Magda Linette earlier in the tournament.

She came into this tournament in underwhelming form too, having made the round of 32 at the Miami Open in March before reaching the quarter-finals of the Stuttgart Open.

Clay is not her speciality and she is weaker than Swiatek on the slower surface.

Swiatek is the youngest player since Martina Hingis in 2000 to make 10 WTA event finals on clay courts and has won her five matches in Madrid by an aggregate game score of 60-20.

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Iga Swiatek v Aryna Sabalenka odds

Iga Swiatek - 3/10
Aryna Sabalenka - 5/2

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.