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Hubert Hurkacz v Rafael Nadal: Prediction, Tips and Odds

All eyes will be on former world number Rafael Nadal in his Rome second-round encounter with seventh seed Hubert Hurkacz, but not too much should be expected from the 10-time champion as he continues his recovery from injury.

Nadal has triumphed 10 times at the Italian Open, while he is a 14-time champion of the French Open and this month’s Grand Slam from Paris may carry greater significance than this tournament in Rome.

To suggest the 37-year-old can win the French Open once again would be a bold statement as he has played only 11 competitive matches this season and has an on-going battle with fitness and injury.

Nadal showed he was up for the fight when coming from a set down to overcome Belgian qualifier Zizou Bergs in round one, although more will be required against Hurkacz.

The Polish world number nine won a clay-court title in Estoril at the beginning of April before enjoying last-16 runs in Monte Carlo and Madrid.

ATP Rome Outright

Hubert Hurkacz v Rafael Nadal betting tips and predictions

Hubert Hurkacz to win - 4/5

Nadal is a 10-time champion in Rome, with his latest success coming against Novak Djokovic in the 2021 final and he is sure to have an army of support on his side in this second-round encounter.

However, there is no denying that the 37-year-old's powers are on the wane and he is clearly not in the perfect condition he would like to be heading into his beloved French Open, where he has triumphed on 14 occasions.

Nadal is probably not in good enough shape to challenge for the title in Rome, so will be using this as valuable match practice ahead of competition in Paris.

There was a lot to like about his fightback in round one against Bergs, but more will be required to contain world number nine Hurkacz, who has made a strong start to the season.

The Pole reached the quarter-finals of the Australian Open and he has started the clay-court campaign in a similar vein, having claimed his eighth career title in Estoril only last month.

That was a first clay-court title for Hurkacz and, while Nadal would clearly have made light work of him on this surface a couple of seasons ago, the Spaniard is not in peak shape.

Nadal was beaten in straight sets in the second round in Barcelona by Alex De Minaur just over three weeks ago and then he bumped into Jiri Lehecka in the last-16 in Madrid, going down 7-5 6-4.

That shows that the Spaniard is still way off his best and requiring three sets to come past world number 108 Bergs in round one is further evidence of that

With all things considered, Hurkacz looks to represent serious value as he has lost only two of his 10 clay-court matches so far this season.

Those defeats came against two-time French Open runner-up Casper Ruud in Monte Carlo and against big-serving American Taylor Fritz in Madrid.

It is debatable whether Nadal could perform to the standard of either of that pair in his current condition and that may give the potent Pole the edge.

Hubert Hurkacz to serve 10+ aces - 11/10

One of Hurkacz’s great strengths is his serve and, if he is to be successful, he is going to need to call upon that asset.

The Polish star served 11 aces in a straight-set defeat to Fritz in Madrid last time out and, with the possibility of three sets and plenty of games against Nadal, he should be able to make at least ten.

Hurkacz has served at least nine aces in four of his last seven matches, which includes 15 against Pedro Martinez in Estoril and Roberto Bautista-Agut in Monte Carlo - he can repeat the trick against another Spanish opponent in Nadal.

Nadal’s last two opponents in Bergs and Lehecka recorded seven aces and Hurkacz is a stronger server than either of that pair.

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Hubert Hurkacz v Rafael Nadal odds

Hubert Hurkacz - 4/5
Rafael Nadal - 1/1

View the full market and more odds for Hubert Hurkacz v Rafael Nadal on site

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.

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