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Felix Auger-Aliassime v Andrey Rublev: Prediction, Tips and Odds

With the big guns faltering, Andrey Rublev has stepped up to the plate and the Russian seventh seed is a strong favourite to claim his second Masters 1000 crown at the expense of Felix Auger-Aliassime.

Rublev has been a model of consistency in recent seasons and this is his fifth Masters 1000 final, with him claiming his maiden title at the Monte Carlo Masters last year.

That was a clay-court event just like this and the Russian is completely versatile regarding the surface, whereas the slower terrain had been seen to be a vulnerability for Auger-Aliassime.

There has been no fluke about Rublev’s run to the final, with him upsetting defending champion Carlos Alcaraz in the quarter-final, whereas the Canadian may be a bit of a fortuitous finalist.

Auger-Aliassime would have been delighted to see quarter-final opponent Jannik Sinner withdraw before that clash with a hip injury, while he was also given a walkover from his semi-final showdown with Jiri Lehecka.

The Canadian did defeat fifth seed Casper Ruud in the round of 16, which suggests he is in good form, but on the whole he has achieved far less than the ruthless Rublev.

Felix Auger-Aliassime v Andrey Rublev

Felix Auger-Aliassime v Andrey Rublev betting tips and predictions

Andrey Rublev -3.5 games on handicap - 1/1

Rublev knows exactly what it takes to win a Masters 1000 title, having clinched last season’s Monte Carlo Masters, and he should be able to double his tally in the Spanish capital.

The Russian is an extremely dangerous player when in the groove and the 26-year-old is a 15-time winner on the ATP Tour, compared to the five titles that Auger-Aliassime has claimed.

Rublev has dropped only one set across his five tournament matches and that came in a three-set epic with world number three Alcaraz, who had won his homeland title in 2022 and 2023.

The seventh seed made light work of American ace Taylor Fritz in his semi-final, easing to a 6-4 6-3 success, and there is every chance that he blitzes his way past Auger-Aliassime.

Rublev has no problem performing to his best on clay, but his Canadian opponent has generally struggled to put his best foot forward on the slower surface.

Auger-Aliassime has lost in the opening round of the French Open in three of his four visits, which highlights his vulnerability on clay, and he looks pretty fortunate to have made the final.

With his last two opponents, Sinner and Lehecka, both withdrawing, Auger-Aliassime has virtually had to win only three matches to reach the title decider.

Even then, second-round rival Jakub Mensík retired hurt after losing the opening set, which shows how blessed the Canadian may have been to get this far.

His third-round victory over Ruud can’t be ignored, but the Norwegian has been keeping busy and may have been feeling the effects of his recent title triumph in Barcelona.

Rublev has dominated this recent rivalry, winning five of their six previous meetings, and he is expected to maintain that superiority with another commanding victory.

Andrey Rublev to win 2-0 - 11/10

Four of Rublev’s five wins in Madrid have come in straight sets, with the only time he has been pushed coming against the phenomenon that is Alcaraz.

And another routine victory looks likely against Auger-Aliassime, who has lost their last three encounters with two of those coming in straight sets.

Despite making the final, there is still a sense that the Canadian would be happier on a faster surface as this is only his second clay-court final - the other came in a minor event in Rio de Janeiro way back in 2019.

Read more tennis betting tips and predictions on site.

Felix Auger-Aliassime v Andrey Rublev odds

Felix Auger-Aliassime - 11/5
Andrey Rublev - 4/11

View the full market and more odds for Felix Auger-Aliassime v Andrey Rublev on site.

Read Felix Auger-Aliassime v Andrey Rublev how to watch, TV channel, head-to-head stats, team news and more on site.

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.

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