Fabio Fognini vs Carlos Alcaraz Tips, Predictions and Bet Builder

Two-time defending champion Carlos Alcaraz opens his 2025 Wimbledon campaign on Monday with a first-round clash against Italian wildcard Fabio Fognini on Centre Court.

Alcaraz arrives at the All England Club riding a career-best 18-match winning streak, which has led him to triumph in Rome, Paris and London.

The Spaniard, who is the number two seed at Wimbledon this year, has an outstanding record on grass with 25 wins in his last 26 matches on the surface.

He will be looking to secure a straightforward passage to the second round, where he is due to meet a qualifier.

Former world No.9 Fognini makes his 15th and final appearance in the Wimbledon main draw at the age of 38.

Now ranked outside the top 100, the Italian has been unable to register any main-draw wins at tour level in 2025, even struggling on his favourite surface of clay.

But Fognini has a handy 18-14 record at SW19, where his shotmaking and unpredictability have always made him a crowd favourite.

Fabio Fognini vs Carlos Alcaraz Tips Summary

Market	Tip	Odds
Match Result	Carlos Alcaraz	1/500
Best Bet	First Set Correct Score Group - Carlos Alcaraz 7-5, 7-6	6/1
Bet Builder	Over 9.5 Games in Set 1, Carlos Alcaraz to win 3-0, Match Handicap: Fabio Fognini +9.5 Games	7/2

Key Match Stats

• Alcaraz is on an 18-match winning streak, 10 of which were secured in straight sets.
• The Spaniard has won 25 of his last 26 matches on grass, including back-to-back Wimbledon titles.
• Fognini has lost in the first round of his last three grass events.
• Head-to-head: Alcaraz leads 2-0, but this is their first meeting on grass.
• Their last match was a three-set battle in Rio, with Fognini taking the first set before Alcaraz rallied to win.

Fabio Fognini vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction

Best Bet: First Set Correct Score Group - Carlos Alcaraz 7-5, 7-6 @ 6/1

Alcaraz’s recent record speaks for itself and it would take a brave soul to oppose the Spaniard to win any set let alone a match.

He made short work of his first-round opponents at the Australian and French Opens this year and will be keen to get the job done on Centre Court as soon as possible. 

Fognini knows his chances of pulling off an upset are remote, but the Italian will want to acquit himself well on his last visit to SW19 before retirement.

The Italian’s serve has always been an asset on grass and he can dictate from the baseline if given the chance.

Alcaraz will pay him full respect with opportunities to break for either player likely to be thin on the ground in the early stages.

Six of the 12 sets he played at Queen’s Club featured 12 games or more and he won the opening set in both of his first and second-rounders at Wimbledon last summer on tie breaks.

Simon Barlow explains:

One break should do it for Alcaraz and given the odds for him to take the opener either 7-5 or 7-6 are significantly better than 6-3 or 6-4 in the Correct Score Group, it may be worth the risk.

Fabio Fognini vs Carlos Alcaraz Bet Builder Tip

• Over 9.5 Games in Set 1
• Carlos Alcaraz to win 3-0
• Match Handicap: Fabio Fognini +9.5 Games
  Pays: 7/2

Alcaraz has the capacity to blow any opponent away if he is on song, but the Spaniard is now well practiced at peaking when it matters in the second week of Grand Slams.

He destroyed Novak Djokovic in last year’s Wimbledon final in straight sets after dropping one against his previous four opponents.

The Spaniard has become a master at conserving his brilliance for when it is really needed and a first-round matchup with an out-of-form Fognini nearing retirement is unlikely to require him reaching top gear.

Fognini could hang with Alcaraz on serve for the first few games until the No.2 seed steps it up in search of the opening set.

Five of his opening sets at last year’s Wimbledon featured more than 10 games and there is a chance of a repeat on Monday. 

His all-court game and athleticism are perfectly suited to grass, so he should be able to secure a 3-0 victory in the end.

But Fognini is a proud man and will not let the occasion get the better fo him, which makes it tempting to back him to stay within the 9.5-game handicap.

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Expect Fognini to entertain and perhaps keep things close for a set, but Alcaraz’s quality and consistency should see him through in straight sets,

adds Simon Barlow.

Read more tennis betting tips and predictions on site.

Tactics and Form

Since falling to Holger Rune in Barcelona, Alcaraz has embarked on an extraordinary run, stringing together 18 consecutive victories. 

This streak includes capturing the Masters 1000 title in Rome — where he defeated world No.1 Jannik Sinner — successfully defending his Roland Garros crown with another win over his Italian rival, and then swiftly transitioning to grass to claim a second Queen’s Club title in three years.

Despite an extended clay-court campaign, Alcaraz showed little sign of fatigue or difficulty adapting to grass. He overcame some early challenges in his Queen’s opener against Adam Walton, battled through a demanding three-set contest with fellow Spaniard Jaume Munar, and then began to display his top form.

Alcaraz dispatched Arthur Rinderknech, Roberto Bautista Agut, and the in-form Jiri Lehecka in succession to secure the trophy for a second time.

Meanwhile, Fognini lost all three of his Wimbledon warm-up matches at Stuttgart, Nottingham and Mallorca, but did take a set off world No.57 Daniel Altmaier on his latest outing.

View the full market and more odds for Fabio Fognini vs Carlos Alcaraz on site.

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.