Emma Navarro v Aryna Sabalenka: Prediction, Tips and Odds

Aryna Sabalena finished runner-up to Coco Gauff at last season’s US Open, and the world number two will have high hopes of going one better in this year’s competition ahead of her semi-final clash against Emma Navarro.

The Belarusian has barely broken a sweat on her way to the semi-final, dropping only one set across her five tournament victories, and she is 2/9 to have Navarro’s measure.

However, Navarro is playing the best tennis of her career and confidence should be flowing following wins over defending champion Gauff and the in-form Paula Badosa.

This is a first Grand Slam semi-final for the American 23-year-old but she will have the advantage of having the home crowd on her side, which could level the playing field more than the odds suggest.

Navarro is 10/3 to spring the surprise, and although that may be a bridge too far at this stage of her career, she certainly has the ability to give Sabalenka a scare.

Emma Navarro v Aryna Sabalenka betting tips and predictions

Emma Navarro to win a set - 1/1

This semi-final revolves around Sabalenka, who is on a 10-match winning streak following her title success in Cincinnati and a strong showing in New York City.

Other than going a set down against Ekaterina Alexandrova in round three, it has been pretty smooth sailing for Sabalenka and her 6-1 6-2 demolition of seventh seed Qinwen Zheng in the quarter-final was her best performance yet.

However, in last season’s final defeat to Gauff, Sabalenka got embroiled in a battle with the home crowd and that would have to be the concern for favourite backers in this semi-final with another American favourite.

Navarro is going to have strong support on the Arthur Ashe Stadium, and, as highlighted in recent years at Flushing Meadows, that is a big advantage.

When you also throw in the fact that Navarro is in career-best form and coming into it off the back of claiming the scalps of Gauff and Badosa, this may be closer than the prices suggest.

This pair have met only once on a hard court and that encounter at Indian Wells in March went the way of Navarro, who finished strongly to record a 6-2 3-6 6-2 success.

When under pressure, Sabalenka can pile up the double faults and rack up the unforced errors, and Navarro knows that her best chance of victory is to frustrate the Belarusian.

Bringing the crowd into play should be another tactic for Navarro, who has the movement, precision and power to make life difficult for the second seed.

With that in mind, backing Navarro to get a set on the board at 1/1 looks like a strong play. In her 16 matches since losing in the Wimbledon quarter-final in July, the American has lost in straight sets only twice.

Over 2.5 double faults for Aryna Sabalenka - 8/11

Few can match the power and physicality of Sabalenka on the WTA Tour, but when under pressure, those strengths can quickly become a weakness.

Sabalenka’s all-out attacking game means unforced errors and double faults are going to come at a high regularity, which is something Navarro will be looking to expose.

The American must stay competitive to build tension on the world number two and a tight game will only help the crowd to get involved in the heat of battle.

In two of Sabalenka’s last three US Open wins over Zheng and Alexandrova, she has had three or more double faults and that could be the case against Navarro, especially if this contest goes three sets as expected.

When these two met at Indian Wells in March, Sabalenka made four double faults and Navarro’s strong return game can ensure that their latest showdown follows a similar pattern.

Emma Navarro v Aryna Sabalenka odds

Emma Navarro - 10/3
Aryna Sabalenka - 2/9

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.