Novak Djokovic v Rafael Nadal: Prediction, Tips and Odds

Among the great sporting rivalries of the modern era, Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal meet for the 60th time on Monday in the second round of the men's singles at the Olympics.

Serbia's Djokovic leads their career head-to-head 30-29 and eased through the opening round, beating Australia's Matthew Ebden 6-0 6-1. It was a different story for his Spanish opponent, who had to battle past Hungary's Marton Fucsovics 6-1 4-6 6-4.

Nadal won their only previous meeting at the Olympics on his way to taking gold in Beijing in 2008, with the bronze he won on that occasion still the best Djokovic has to show for his career at the Games.

He will be determined to put that right in this second round clash, the duo's first meeting since 2022, with the winner going on to play either Germany's Dominik Koepfer or Italy's Matteo Arnaldi.

Novak Djokovic v Rafael Nadal betting tips and predictions

Novak Djokovic to win 2-1 - 11/4

While injuries have again impacted Nadal's progress in 2024 - he is currently playing on a protected ranking, top seed Djokovic's fitness has been generally fine, barring a knee injury suffered at the French Open that meant he also had to withdraw at Wimbledon. However, he simply hasn't been able to get over the line and is still to win a tournament this year.

Breaking that duck at his final Olympics would be fitting and would set him up nicely for his defence at next month's US Open.

Saturday's cruise past Ebden will have upped his confidence. He looked extremely fresh in the match and should be well-rested but the opposite could be true for Nadal, who was pushed hard by Fucsovics on Sunday.

That means he has had 24 hours less to recover, while he has also been in doubles action, partnering Carlos Alcaraz to a 7-6 6-4 win over the Argentinean pair of Maximo Gonzalez and Andres Molteni on Saturday.

The rhythm of playing regular matches might be what he needs after his injury-riddled recent years. Regardless of Monday's outcome, there is still the possibility that he will be able to win gold, with him and Alcaraz back in action on Tuesday against the Dutch duo of Tallon Griekspoor and Wesley Koolhof.

Nadal also won doubles gold alongside Marc Lopez in Rio de Janeiro in 2016 and is sure to be inspired, with every match he plays in Paris potentially his last one at his favourite venue, Roland Garros, where he leads Djokovic 8-2 in their career rivalry in the 16th arrondissement.

Nadal saves his best form for the red dirt but was unconvincing against Fucsovics and fatigue could play a factor.

He can win a set, though. Djokovic has had a habit of dropping them this year, but the Serb should battle through in what could be an all-time Games classic. 

Over 20.5 games - 1/1

The pair's rivalry has featured several epics and Monday's match promises more of the same. None of their last three meetings have been won in straight sets, so the above outcome of 2-1 makes sense, as does going for over 20.5 games.

These two have met so many times that there are few secrets between them and both can be expected to slog the ball back to each other from the back of the court.

That usually leads to close, long matches and over 0.5 tie breaks is a tempting 5/2. Such a set will provide 12 of the necessary games to get to over 20.5 and it feels likely.

Despite this only being the second round, neither will leave anything on the court so expect a long match, although Djokovic's greater mobility could see him through.

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Novak Djokovic v Rafael Nadal odds

Djokovic - 1/7
Nadal - 9/2

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.