Novak Djokovic v Roberto Carballes Baena: Prediction, Tips and Odds

Despite recording a straight-sets victory over Pierre-Hugues Herbert in the opening round of his French Open title defence, Novak Djokovic was made to work hard and he will have to be on the ball against Roberto Carballes Baena.

Although it looked like a routine 3-0 win on paper, Djokovic needed two hours and 33 minutes to stamp his authority over Herbert and didn’t have things all his own way in a 6-4 7-6 6-4 victory.

With the 24-time Grand Slam champion still yet to secure any silverware this season, he has a bit to prove and he will be hoping to quash any concerns in a commanding victory over Carballes Baena.

The Spaniard also came past a French opponent in round one as he recorded a four-set success over Constant Lestienne and, if he springs a surprise on the world number one, it will be the first time he has made the third round of a Grand Slam since the 2020 French Open.

Novak Djokovic v Roberto Carballes Baena betting tips and predictions

Roberto Carballes Baena +9.5 games on the handicap - 8/11

Djokovic failed to cover the handicap in his opening contest with Herbert and the start given to Carballes Baena could be another generous one for punters.

Although the Serbian triumphed in straight sets against his first-round rival, a +5.5 start would have been enough for the Frenchman to reward his backers and Carballes Baena is going to be no pushover either.

Djokovic came into this tournament with some concerns surrounding his form as he lost three of his final six clay-court preparation matches while he has yet to secure a single piece of silverware this season.

That suggests he is operating some way below the peak of his powers and that was evident against Herbert, who was able to stay competitive despite being the world number 140 and more renowned for his consistency in doubles.

Carballes Baena, on the other hand, is the world number 63 and he has a strong all-round game for the clay, a surface he has been accustomed to playing on since a very young age.

The 31-year-old has won two clay-court titles on the ATP Tour and also made the final in Marrakesh as recently as April, where he lost to the rejuvenated Matteo Berrettini in that slow-court title decider.

This is evidently the Spaniard’s strongest surface and, while Djokovic is unlikely to come a cropper so early on in the tournament, the handicap definitely underestimates his true winning chances.

Djokovic has won both previous meetings, each of which have come in Grand Slam events, in straight sets, but neither have been on clay and that enhances Carballes Baena’s prospects.

Roberto Carballes Baena 3+ double faults - 4/6

Opponents know they have to serve better than ever when coming up against Djokovic, one of the game’s greatest ever returners, and that often leads to some mistakes as they seek a strong second serve.

With that in mind, backing Carballes Baena to make three or more double faults at 4/6 could reap the rewards.

Djokovic’s opening-round opponent, Herbert, made seven double faults and Carballes Baena has produced at least three double faults in three of his last six completed matches.

Given five of those outings were played over a best-of-three-set format and neither came against a player of Djokovic’s calibre, it is easy to envisage him surpassing his average total.

In a 6-4 6-1 6-4 loss to Djokovic at the US Open five years ago, the Spaniard made five double faults and, with him to extend this contest under his ideal conditions, it could be a similar scenario.

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Novak Djokovic v Roberto Carballes Baena odds

Novak Djokovic - 1/50
Roberto Carballes Baena - 18/1

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.