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Daniil Medvedev v Carlos Alcaraz: Prediction, Tips and Odds

Daniil Medvedev’s reward for eliminating world number one Jannik Sinner out of Wimbledon is a semi-final against reigning champion Carlos Alcaraz, who knocked the Russian out at this stage 12 months ago.

Alcaraz has dropped at least a set in each of his last three wins in this year’s tournament, against Frances Tiafoe, Ugo Humbert and Tommy Paul.

Medvedev ended a five-match losing streak against Sinner to continue his progress and Friday’s last-four encounter promises to be another enthralling battle.

Daniil Medvedev v Carlos Alcaraz

Daniil Medvedev v Carlos Alcaraz betting tips and predictions

Carlos Alcaraz Over 3.5 Breaks of Serve - 4/5

Medvedev ran out an easy winner when meeting Alcaraz for the first time at Wimbledon in 2021, losing just six games, but the Spaniard gained revenge last year when recording a 6-3 6-3 6-3 victory.

One of the more noticeable factors in Medvedev’s defeat was his inability to convert key points, as he dropped his serve when the going got tough in each set.

Alcaraz broke for a 5-3 lead in the first and Medvedev lost his serve again in the final game of the second set to dig a deeper hole for himself.

It wasn’t until he was virtually out of the match at two sets and a break down that he finally began to get some traction on Alcaraz’s serve, breaking him twice to no avail as the eventual 2023 Wimbledon champion closed it out.

Alcaraz broke his opponent’s serve six times in total and it would be no surprise to see him convert in similar pressure situations this year.

Medvedev was wobbly on serve in the first set tie-break against Sinner, coughing up two double faults including the crucial one that handed the Italian a 1-0 lead in the match.

Even when Medvedev produced some of the best tennis of his career to beat Alcaraz in the US Open semi-final last year, he double-faulted on his first match point.

This vulnerability is illustrated by the fact that he has double-faulted 26 times at this year’s Championships - seven more than Alcaraz at this stage.

Alcaraz has broken his opponents a total of 30 times at the tournament and looks great value to take at least four Medvedev service games on Friday.

Under 0.5 Total Tie Breaks in Match - 13/8

Also noteworthy, and not entirely unconnected to Medvedev’s problems when serving under pressure, has been the relative lack of tie-breaks when these two have met in the past.

Of their 16 sets played, only two have gone the distance and neither of those were in the encounters at Wimbledon.

Not only has Alcaraz broken serve more times than any other male player this year, but he also has the second-best ratio of breaks per match at 6.0.

Only three of his 19 sets played at SW19 this year have gone to a tie-break and his ability to punch holes in even the top players’ defences from the back of the court make the odds-against on offer for no tie-breaks worth taking.

Carlos Alcaraz to win from behind - 10/3

Medvedev can be a great front-runner if he noses ahead, as his record of 21-2 when winning the first set this year indicates.

Likewise, Alcaraz is almost impossible to peg back after taking the opening set, having taken 92% of the matches where he was the first player to get one on the board.

But their career records differ enormously when it comes to fifth-set win ratios, with Medvedev having won only seven of 17 deciders and Alcaraz victorious in 10 of 11 final sets in Grand Slam events.

In his five previous Grand Slam semi-finals, however, Alcaraz has lost the opener.

Whether that trend continues remains to be seen but Alcaraz’s brilliant record in five-set matches suggests that there is some value in backing him to come from behind at some stage.

Read more tennis betting tips and predictions on site.

Daniil Medvedev v Carlos Alcaraz odds

Daniil Medvedev - 11/4
Carlos Alcaraz-
2/7

View the full market and more odds for Daniil Medvedev v Carlos Alcaraz on site.

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.

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