Casper Ruud v Stefanos Tsitsipas: Prediction, Tips and Odds

Casper Ruud and Stefanos Tsitsipas both sprang surprises in the Monte Carlo semi-finals as Tsitsipas defeated Jannik Sinner before Ruud toppled Novak Djokovic, setting up a clash for the first Masters 1000 prize of the European clay-court season.

For Tsitsipas, this is familiar territory - the Greek won the Monte Carlo Masters in 2021 and 2022 - but Ruud has never won a title of this calibre despite being a three-time Grand Slam runner-up.

Casper Ruud v Stefanos Tsitsipas betting tips and predictions

Stefanos Tsitsipas to win - 8/13

There is little between these two in the match betting but Tsitsipas has lit up the Monte Carlo Country Club courts this week and the Greek ace looks a worthy 8/13 favourite as he seeks to regain this title.

It has been a tough start to the season for Tsitsipas - he has failed to contend with regularity and has dropped out of the world's top 10 for the first time since 2019 - but the 25-year-old has come alive on clay, beating a string of top-class rivals to reach the final.

After comfortable victories over Laslo Djere and Tomas Martin Etcheverry, the Greek stepped up his level in the round of 16, beating fifth-ranked Alexander Zverev 7-5 7-6 in a scoreline which arguably flattered the loser.

An easy victory over Karen Khachanov followed and Tsitsipas showed glimpses of brilliance in the semi-finals, holding his nerve to beat red-hot Australian Open champion Sinner in three sets.

That performance demonstrated the Athenian's growing self-belief and it's no surprise that he's found top form in Monte Carlo, which has been his home for several years.

Ruud's run to the final, capped by a semi-final win over Djokovic, has been similarly impressive and the Norwegian leads Tsitsipas 2-1 in tour-level head-to-head clashes, including their only previous clay meeting in the vastly different high-altitude conditions of Madrid.

However, the 13/10 underdog has questions to answer when it comes to winning the biggest titles.

Ruud has failed to win six of his last seven finals, with his sole triumph coming in a 250 Series event at the 2023 Estoril Open, and it's perhaps telling that all of ten titles have come at that level.

He's 0-6 in more significant finals and while Grand Slam losses to Djokovic (twice) and Rafael Nadal are understandable, he has suffered back-to-back final reverses in Mexico this season against Jordan Thompson and Alex de Minaur.

Tsitsipas, with confidence restored, looks poised to reign in Monte Carlo again.

Stefanos Tsitsipas to win 2-0 - 13/8

Ruud might shade the head-to-head but Tsitsipas won 6-1 6-4 when these two met in Toronto in 2021 and his incredible Monte Carlo record suggests that a 2-0 Tsitsipas win is the correct-score value.

Tsitsipas won the 2021 title without dropping a set, then his successful defence the following season featured four straight-sets wins with only Diego Schwartzman, at the time a high-class clay performer, able to take a set off of him.

Sinner, the best player in the world this year, did likewise in the semi-finals but Ruud's self-belief could soon ebb away if he falls behind.

Stefanos Tsitsipas over 1.5 total breaks of serve in first set - 12/5

Tsitsipas has taken down two of the best servers on the ATP World Tour in Zverev and Sinner and he could make significant inroads on Ruud's less impressive delivery by breaking it at least twice in the opening set.

The Norwegian is no slouch on serve either, but Tsitsipas has been returning to a high level all week and he should come out all guns blazing having broken at least once in the opening set in all of his 2024 Monte Carlo matches. 

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Casper Ruud v Stefanos Tsitsipas odds

Casper Ruud - 13/10
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 8/13

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.