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Carlos Alcaraz’s potential route to the Wimbledon final

Carlos Alcaraz needs little introduction after winning the Wimbledon men’s singles title in the past two years and there looks to be little preventing the super Spaniard reaching his third grass-court final in 2025.

After winning the title at Queen’s Club, there looks to be only a few players capable of denying Alcaraz a hat-trick this year - and all of those players could be in the opposite half of the draw to the reigning champion, who retained his French Open title in early June.

With all that in mind, it is no surprise to see Alcaraz leading the outright betting at 21/20 and here we chart his potential route to the Wimbledon final.

First round - Fabio Fognini

Fabio Fognini was one of the few players who was capable of taking the game to Rafael Nadal, but unfortunately for the Italian veteran he never quite found the secret to unlocking Novak Djokovic’s secret.

The soon-to-be-retired Fognini has been handed the toughest possible opener with a clash against Alcaraz, who has won their two previous encounters, both on clay.

Fognini, 38, will try his best but it’s difficult to see him winning a set against the best player in tennis currently.

Second round - Oliver Tarvet

Oliver Tarvet could lie in wait for Alcaraz after Fognini, but while the qualifier could offer up stern resistance, this is a very steep learning curve for the 21-year-old Briton and the Spaniard should post another straight-sets triumph.

Tarvet, from St Albans, went to college in San Diego and this is his first appearance in a Grand Slam main draw. He beat Terence Atmane and Alexis Galarneau in two sets before requiring four sets to get past Alexander Blockx in the final round of qualifying.

And even though Tarvet is fancied to find a way past Switzerland’s Leandro Riedi in round one, his fun is likely to end in the last 64.

Third round - Felix Auger-Aliassime

Felix Auger-Aliassime could provide Alcaraz’s opposition in round three, but he has become something of a serial underachiever after showing much promise in his early years as a professional.

The Canadian is a sublime talent, but it’s almost as if being too nice on court is preventing Auger-Aliassime from taking the next step up the ladder.

Things could get better for the 24-year-old from Montreal, but more often than not Auger-Aliassime fails to justify his immense potential and that is unlikely to change in the coming fortnight.

Fourth round - Andrey Rublev

Andrey Rublev is another player who appears to have changed little in recent seasons, but the 14th seed is still there and chipping away.

Rublev is not without a chance of posing problems to Alcaraz, should they clash in the last 16. But just for comparison, Daniil Medvedev was playing pretty well this time last year against a slightly below-par Alcaraz and even he could win only one set against the Murcian.

Rublev could give it his best shot, but Alcaraz looks too stable and solid on the nippy lawns to suggest a huge upset may possibly happen.

Quarter-final - Frances Tiafoe

It’s a tough call between who could take to the court against Alcaraz in the last eight, but slight preference is for Frances Tiafoe over Holger Rune.

Danish eighth seed Rune has done a lot of good work already this season but he doesn't tends to maintain that over a long stretch, so opportunity may knock for Tiafoe.

The 27-year-old American remains an unfashionable performer in the eyes of many observers, but Tiafoe seldom gets the credit he deserves for some cracking efforts in the Grand Slam tournaments.

The Maryland native is one of just a few players in the bottom half who could potentially cause trouble for Alcaraz. But as with almost all of his opponents, the best-of-five-set match lengths favour the favourite.

Semi-final - Taylor Fritz

There’s another tough shout to be made between Alexander Zverev and Taylor Fritz as to who might oppose Alcaraz in the semi-finals and ever so slight preference is for the American.

Fritz has won his last five meetings with Zverev, a run which started with a five-set victory at Wimbledon last year and culminated in a 6-3 7-6 win in the final on the grass in Stuttgart earlier this month.

Alcaraz won his only previous meeting with Fritz, a comfortable two-set victory on a Miami hard court in 2023.

It’s possible that Fritz, 27, may now have reached a level that enables him to dominate the points on grass against Alcaraz.

However, given his methodical nature and gradual improvement, whatever he comes up with should they cross swords for only the second time is still unlikely to be enough against a player who has the opportunity to dominate his sport more than Djokovic, Nadal or Roger Federer ever could do.

Read more tennis betting tips and predictions on site.

Read Wimbledon: Schedule, date, draw and order of play.

Read Wimbledon: Dates, times, venue details & champions.

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.

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