Katie Boulter v Paula Badosa: Prediction, Tips and Odds

British number one Katie Boulter has made huge strides in a short space of time, climbing up to 28th in the world rankings, but she has a point to prove on clay and looks in for a tough time against Paula Badosa.

Boulter is now a two-time winner on the WTA Tour after she claimed the biggest win of her career in San Diego, a WTA 500 event in which she toppled Marta Kostyuk in a three-set final.

However, this is the first time in which she has featured in the main draw of the French Open and on early evidence clay looks the weakest of her terrains.

So this will be a learning experience against Badosa, a former French Open quarter-finalist who looks on her way back to something near her best after a tricky period battling injury.

This is a first career meeting between the pair and, while the gap in rankings suggests there is a gulf between the pair, Badosa is far better than her ranking of 140 implies.

The Spaniard is 1/3 to triumph with seeded star Boulter 12/5 to get the job done.

Katie Boulter v Paula Badosa betting tips and predictions

Paula Badosa to win 2-1 - 5/2

Injuries meant Badosa missed three of the four Grand Slams last season but she returned in January with a run to the third round of the Australian Open.

Given her best ever run in a Grand Slam came at the French Open in 2021 when she made the quarter-finals, there are reasons to believe she could enjoy a deep run in Paris.

Remarkably, this is only the fourth time that the 26-year-old has featured in the French Open and her other two efforts saw her make the fourth round and the third round.

The Spaniard is a three-time winner on the WTA Tour and she simply excels on clay, which was evident on her run to the the last 16 in Rome last time out.

Badosa has defeated teenage sensation Mirra Andreeva, the dangerous Emma Navarro and rising star Diana Shnaider before bumping into world number three Cori Gauff.

That is an excellent return to form and she even pushed Gauff to a deciding set, suggesting that she is back operating close to the peak of her powers.

On the clay of Stuttgart earlier last month, Badosa had even clinched a set from world number two Aryna Sabalenka before being forced to retire hurt when locked level 3-3 in the deciding set.

That form looks good enough to account for British star Boulter, who has to prove her slow-court prowess having lost three of her five matches on clay this season.

Those reverses have all come against players outside the world’s top 80, highlighting her need to improve.

That said, five of Badosa’s last six matches have gone to a deciding set, which suggests the value may lie with the Spaniard to prevail in three at 5/2.

Under 8.5 games in first set - 4/6

Breaks of serve are a common theme in the women’s game, especially on a slow surface such as this, and going under 8.5 games could reap the rewards.

That is a bet that has won in four of Boulter’s last five matches while it has also obliged in five of Badosa’s last eight.

Neither are prolific ace-hitters so holding serve won’t be easy and that means the opening set could be wrapped up pretty efficiently.

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Katie Boulter v Paula Badosa odds

Katie Boulter - 12/5
Paula Badosa - 1/3

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.