ATP Finals: Prediction, Tips and Odds

Jannik Sinner is the red-hot favourite to cap a brilliant campaign with success at the ATP Finals and Racing Post's Joe Champion expects the Italian to wow the Turin crowd and take the title for the first time.

While Novak Djokovic's withdrawal is a blow, eight of the world's top nine are in action at the Inalpi Arena, including world No.1 Sinner, a winner of seven titles this season, including the Australian and US Opens and he is just 5/4 to make it eight in his homeland.

ATP Finals betting tips and predictions

Jannik Sinner to win @ 5/4

The ATP Finals features two groups of four players who compete in round-robin matches, with the top two from each section progressing to the semi-finals. The winner of one group faces the runner-up of the other and vice versa.

Sinner is the top seed in the Ilie Nastase Group and has been drawn alongside the men who he beat in Grand Slam finals this season, Daniil Medvedev and Taylor Fritz, as well as Finals debutant Alex de Minaur.

The John Newcombe Group, meanwhile, features world No.2 Alexander Zverev, French Open and Wimbledon champion Carlos Alcaraz, Norway's Casper Ruud and Andrey Rublev, who was the man to benefit from Djokovic's withdrawal.

It has been a tremendous season for Sinner, who made it a magnificent seven titles with victory at the Shanghai Masters last month and he looks poised to launch a bold bid for the Turin title from what is clearly a winnable section.  

The 23-year-old boasts an awesome 65-6 record at ATP Tour level this year and should be well rested after making the decision to withdraw from the Paris Masters with an illness which he appears to be fully recovered from.

While the world No.1 is yet to win this title, he has impressed in two previous appearances, the first as an alternate when he demolished Hubert Hurkacz and pushed Medvedev to a deciding tie-break, then last season when finding an inspired Djokovic too strong in the final.

Sinner has taken a clear leap forward this season, both mentally and physically and he should have no problems escaping the Nastase Group.

He has won seven of his last eight head-to-head meetings with Medvedev as well as his last two clashes against Fritz, while he is a perfect 7-0 against De Minaur.

From then on, things are expected to get tougher with Alcaraz or Zverev likely semi-final opponents.

However, it's extremely difficult to pick holes in Sinner's form this season and, provided he's fit and well, he's the one to beat, particularly with the crowd on his side.

Alexander Zverev to win John Newcombe Group @ 2/1

The Newcombe Group provides the more interesting betting angle, with Alcaraz not absolutely certain to deliver as the section favourite.

The Spaniard has been brilliant at times this season, including when beating Sinner for the third time in 2024 in a breathless three-set China Open final last month, but he has also suffered shock defeats in Cincinnati, the US Open, Shanghai and Paris.

He's difficult to trust, particularly up against Zverev, who has won half of their 10 meetings, including in last season's ATP Finals, as well as at the Australian Open in January.

Instead, it's the German who appeals to win the Newcombe Group.

While it might seem like Sinner and Alcaraz have surpassed the 27-year-old, he is ranked second in the world for good reason and has won more matches in 2024 than ever before.

A brilliant champion in Paris last time out, Zverev is a fine indoor player whose consistency could be rewarded in Turin, while it is also worth remembering that he is a two-time winner of this tournament.

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ATP Finals odds

Jannik Sinner - 5/4
Carlos Alcaraz - 2/1
Alexander Zverev - 13/2
Daniil Medvedev - 9/1
Taylor Fritz - 16/1
Andrey Rublev - 20/1
Alex de Minaur - 20/1
Casper Ruud - 40/1

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.