Aryna Sabalenka v Sonay Kartal: Free Tips, Prediction and Odds

Aryna Sabalenka and Sonay Kartal face off in the fourth round of the BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells, with the world No. 1 looking to continue her dominance when she takes on the rising British star.

Sabalenka, the 2023 Indian Wells finalist, has had a strong start to the tournament, dispatching McCartney Kessler and Lucia Bronzetti in straight sets. Kartal, meanwhile, has made the most of her opportunity to feature in the main event as a lucky loser.

The Brighton native lost in qualifying to Clervie Ngounoue but got a chance to play on the big stage when Sloane Stephens withdrew because of a foot injury.

The 23-year-old saw off Varvara Lepchenko 7-6, 6-2 in round one and followed that up with a stunningly one-sided 6-2, 6-1 victory over No. 16 seed Beatriz Haddad Maia - her first career win over a top-20 player.

After conquering big-hitting Polina Kudermetova in round three, Kartal has already guaranteed herself a huge payday and a new career-best ranking.

But the chance to go toe-to-toe with the best in the world right now is one to relish as she bids to improve upon her straight-sets defeat to Coco Gauff at last year’s Wimbledon in her only previous clash with a top-10 star.

Aryna Sabalenka v Sonay Kartal free betting tips and predictions

First set score after six games - 3-3 - 11/4

This match could produce an intriguing clash of styles and tactics as Sabalenka relies on her power game and poise on the big points, while Kartal attempts to mix things up with her crafty all-court play. 

That is how the Briton approached her third round clash with No.2 seed Gauff at Wimbledon last summer and it made for a close contest for the first half an hour or so.

After overcoming the inevitable early nerves of fulfilling her childhood dream by playing on Centre Court, Kartal made things very tough for the American.

She was broken to love in the opening game, but then held to love, 30 and 15 in the next three before breaking Gauff in the eighth to level at 4-4.

That performance could be the template for her tactics against Sabalenka, who was taken to a tie-break in the first set of her opening match with Kessler.

Kartal’s serve has been more solid at Indian Wells than it was last year when she was only recently back from an injury. Her confidence is also much higher now after this run and clinching her first WTA Tour title in Tunisia last October.

She can hang in there with Sabalenka for a few games before the world No.1 works her out and finds a way to get on top, so the odds about the first set being level after six games looks appealing.

Aryna Sabalenka to win in straight sets - 3/10

Although Sabalenka has experienced a sticky patch of form and results since her defeat to Madison Keys in the final of the Australian Open, she has looked back to her best at Indian Wells.

The Belarusian has dropped just 13 games across her two matches and six of those were in the first set of her opening match.

Sabalenka’s powerful serve and groundstrokes have been particularly effective, with the 26-year-old from Minsk hitting eight aces and winning 81% of her first serve points in her last match against Bronzetti.

She has won over 73% of her career games on hard courts and almost 70% of her contests in WTA 1000/Masters level events.

Kartal, while impressive during this run to the last-16, has yet to face an opponent of Sabalenka's calibre on the surface.

A straight-sets victory for the world No. 1 seems likely given Sabalenka's dominant form and Kartal's relative inexperience at this level.

First set correct score group - Sabalenka 6-3,6-4 - 7/4

While Sabalenka is favoured to eventually come out on top, Kartal has shown enough resilience and quality throughout the tournament to suggest it will not be a walkover for the three-time Grand Slam champion.

The Briton has won seven out of her last 10 matches, demonstrating she has good form, while her ability to both save and convert break points at Indian Wells has been impressive.

She has saved nine of the 12 break points she has faced in the first three rounds and converted a stunning 11 of 18 (61%)

In comparison, Sabalenka has converted seven of her 15 break point chances over her two matches at Indian Wells, but her serve has been so consistent that she has only faced three break points, saving two.

Behind her big serve, the Belarusian should be able to hold consistently against Kartal and convert at least one break-point opportunity before the set goes too deep - leading to either a 6-3 or 6-4 success.

Read more tennis betting tips and predictions on site

Aryna Sabalenka v Sonay Kartal odds

Aryna Sabalenka - 1/14
Sonay Kartal - 8/1

View the full market and more odds for Aryna Sabalenka v Sonay Karta on site

Read Aryna Sabalenka v Sonay Kartal how to watch, TV channel, live stream, start time and more on site

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.