Aryna Sabalenka v Paula Badosa: Prediction, Tips and Odds

Aryna Sabalenka and Paula Badosa are best friends off court but there will be no room for sentiment when the pair meet with a place in Saturday's Australian Open women's singles final on the line.

Sabalenka, the winner of the Daphne Akhurst Memorial Cup in both 2023 and 2024, claimed her 19th consecutive Melbourne Park victory with Tuesday's quarter-final win over Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova but the world no.1 had to do it the hard way, going to three sets to defeat the 27th seed.

Badosa, meanwhile, has been busy building on a resurgent 2024 campaign and, regardless of the result of this match, will return to the WTA Tour's top 10 for the first time since 2022 next week after she defied the odds to defeat Coco Gauff in the quarter-finals.

Given her hard-court dominance, it's no surprise to see Sabalenka chalked up as the 1/4 favourite, with Badosa 3/1 to pull off another shock against a higher-ranked opponent.

Aryna Sabalenka v Paula Badosa betting tips and predictions

Paula Badosa +4.5 games handicap - 4/5

Sabalenka's formidable Melbourne Park record, and her hard-court performances in general, meant that she went into the 2025 Australian Open as the tournament favourite, but the Belarusian has now ceded favouritism to Iga Swiatek, who faces Madison Keys in Thursday's other semi-final match.

While that's partly down to Swiatek's brilliance, it also accounts for the likelihood that Badosa will continue her superb form by knocking out her close friend - or at least pushing her close.

Sabalenka did not drop a set in her first four matches in Melbourne this year, overpowering former US Open champion Sloane Stephens in her opening match then doing likewise against Jessica Bouzas Maneiro, Clara Tauson and Mirra Andreva as she eased through to the last eight.

While those opponents lacked the physical attributes to go toe-to-toe with Sabalenka on this surface, that was not the case for Pavlyuchenkova, who forced the WTA no.1 out of her comfort zone for a time in their quarter-final clash.

Class and sheer fight helped Sabalenka to triumph by a 6-2 2-6 6-3 scoreline but she faces another test of her mettle against Badosa, who is full of confidence and operating at the peak of her powers despite managing a long-term back issue.

The Spaniard, a former world no.2, has lost five straight WTA Tour meetings against her close pal but she's been competitive in the bulk of those matches and she also leads Sabalenka 2-1 on this surface, having won their first two hard-court meetings in Cincinnati and at the WTA Finals, both in 2021.

Badosa, who claimed her greatest victory at Indian Wells that year, appears to have rediscovered that level of form, which makes her a big danger. She can stay within a 4.5-game handicap in what could be a pulsating semi-final contest.

Aryna Sabalenka to win from behind - 11/2

Having won 17 of her last 19 Australian Open matches in straight sets, it would be no great shock if Sabalenka prevailed by a 2-0 correct score, but there could be value in backing her to win from behind at much more attractive odds.

The head-to-head record is 5-2 in Sabalenka's favour and she has won the opening set in five of their meetings. However, the pair tend to keep close tabs on each other in the early stages having played out two first-set tiebreaks, while Sabalenka has twice won the first set by a 7-5 scoreline.

Badosa, playing with plenty of confidence, could claim the opening set on her Grand Slam semi-final debut, but Sabalenka's big-stage experience, coupled with her appetite for a battle, could enable her to turn things around.

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Aryna Sabalenka v Paula Badosa odds

Aryna Sabalenka - 1/4
Paula Badosa - 3/1

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.