Women’s world number one Aryna Sabalenka is on for a third successive Australian Open title at the expense of American ace Madison Keys and Racing Post’s Aaron Ashley has picked out his two best bets for the blockbuster final at Melbourne Park.
Having also won last season’s US Open on the back of a runner-up effort at Flushing Meadows in 2023, Sabalenka has made a fifth consecutive hard-court Grand Slam final and she has quickly established herself as the dominant force on these faster surfaces.
Keys, in contrast, is back in a Grand Slam final for the first time since finishing runner-up to fellow American Sloane Stephens in the 2017 US Open and she may be full of optimism having seen off Elena Rybakina and Iga Swiatek on her Australian Open journey.
However, while Keys has required a deciding set in four of her six wins, there have been very few scares for Sabalenka, with the big-hitting Belarusian dropping only one set and there appear to be very few weaknesses in her game.
Aryna Sabalenka to win 2-0 - 4/5
There have been few scares for the top seed and she has dropped only a set at Melbourne Park, in her quarter-final victory over Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, who adopts a similarly all-or-nothing style.
Otherwise, it has been serene progress for the Belarusian in her pursuit of an Australian Open hat-trick and she is expected to have too many weapons for Keys, who has the added pressure of trying to claim a maiden Grand Slam title, with no guarantee of further opportunities down the line.
Sabalenka’s semi-final victory over Paula Badosa saw her prevail 6-2 6-2 in just under an hour and a half, while Keys had to come through a three-set epic with Iga Swiatek, a battle which went on for two hours and 37 minutes.
That means four of the American’s six wins have come in a deciding set and while her semi-final victory over Swiatek reads well, the Pole was taking part in the last four of the Australian Open for only the second time in seven efforts.
Swiatek had benefited from a light schedule and has often been beatable under these quicker conditions, so tackling Sabalenka is evidently a much tougher task.
Sabalenka has lost only three of her last 38 hard-court matches and she has won 34 of her last 35 Grand Slam matches on this speedier surface.
The Belarusian’s sheer strength and her desire to hit winners could catch Keys cold, who has lost all three meetings with Sabalenka on this surface and won only one set.
So Sabalenka can secure her fourth Grand Slam title under her optimum conditions and she looks good value at 4/5 to do it in style with a 2-0 win.
5+ double faults in the match - 4/6
With both players possessing plenty of power on serve, that is something they will be looking to utilise and while that can lead to aces, it may also see a fair few double faults.
Occasionally Sabalenka can lose rhythm in the middle of a match and when her first serve deserts her she tends to rack up double faults, while Keys will know she has to hold regularly if she is going to pull off the shock.
Given the stakes, there are sure to be some nerves and it seems wise to expect at least five double faults in the contest, something which has occurred in four of their five previous meetings.
Each of Keys' last five Australian Open victories have gone over that total - her semi-final with Swiatek featured 11 double faults - and this title decider between two power hitters may follow a similar narrative.
Read more tennis betting tips and predictions on site.
Aryna Sabalenka - 2/7
Madison Keys - 11/4
View the full market and more odds for Aryna Sabalenka v Madison Keys on site.
This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.