Alexander Zverev v Ugo Humbert: Prediction, Tips and Odds

Partner Authors Updated: 04 Nov 24 13:19

Alexander Zverev and Ugo Humbert will face off in the final of the Paris Masters on Sunday with both players going in search of their first title in the French capital.

World number three Zverev is a six-time Masters 1000 event winner but he has never triumphed in Paris, losing in the final of this tournament to Daniil Medvedev in 2020, while he also went down to Carlos Alcaraz in this year's French Open showpiece.

This will be Frenchman Humbert's first appearance in a Masters 1000 final, but after beating Alcaraz en route to Sunday's showpiece and with a raucous home support behind him at the Accor Arena, he should not be overawed.

Alexander Zverev v Ugo Humbert

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Alexander Zverev v Ugo Humbert betting tips and predictions

Alexander Zverev to win in three sets @ 5/2

It has been another impressive season for Zverev, who claimed his sixth Masters 1000 title at the Italian Open in May, beating Nicolas Jarry in the final, before going down in five sets to Alcaraz in the French Open final the following month.

The German also made it through to the Hamburg Open final in July, losing to Arthur Fils, but he will be hopeful his extra experience in the latter stages of big tournaments will stand him in good stead on Sunday. This will be his 12th appearance in the final of a Masters 1000 event.

Humbert certainly does not have the same level of experience as Zverev, but the 26-year-old is through to his fourth ATP Tour final of the year, having followed his victories at the Open 13 and Dubai Tennis Championships with defeat to compatriot Fils at last month's Japan Open.

Both players have impressed in Paris this week, with Zverev gaining revenge over Fils with victory in the third round before seeing off Stefanos Tsitsipas and Holger Rune in straight sets to book his place in the final.

There was no doubting Humbert's biggest scalp came when seeing off world number two Alcaraz in three sets in round three, while he also showed great resilience to come from a set down to beat Karen Khachanov in the semi-finals.

It remains to be seen how much that latest success will have taken out of Humbert, but this final should be another close contest, with both previous meetings between the pair having gone to a deciding set.

Humbert won the first of those on grass at the Halle Open in 2021, but it was Zverev who triumphed when they most recently locked horns at the last-32 stage of this tournament last year, the German prevailing 6-4, 6-7, 7-6.

That victory from 12 months ago should give Zverev plenty of belief, as should his greater experience in big finals. The 27-year-old has won 22 of his previous 35 finals on the ATP Tour and career-title number 23 could be on its way, although he will likely have to work hard for the success so do not be surprised if this match goes the distance.

Over 23.5 games in the match - 10/11

If, as seems likely, this match goes to a deciding set, then there is a distinct possibility that there will be a minimum of 24 games contested as well.

When they last met at the 2023 Paris Masters, there were a monster 36 games played, with Zverev taking the first set 6-4 before the final two went to tiebreaks.

Their first meeting in Halle also exceeded the 24-game threshold, with 31 played in total, and both players have also been involved in gruelling contests in Paris this year.

Zverev won his last two matches in straight sets, but both those victories over Tsitsipas and Rune totalled 22 games, just short of this threshold, while his third-round win over Fils featured 28.

Two of Humbert's last three matches in Paris, against Alcaraz and Khachanov, also went well beyond that threshold and with Sunday's final expected to be closely fought, the likelihood of there being over 23.5 games would appear high.