Alexander Zverev v Nicolas Jarry: Prediction, Tips and Odds

Alexander Zverev came from a set down to defeat Novak Djokovic’s conqueror Alejandro Tabilo in the semi-finals and he has his eyes set on another Chilean opponent in Nicolas Jarry in the title decider.

This is nothing new for Zverev, who is targeting a sixth Masters 1000 crown and a second success in Rome following his 2017 victory against Djokovic.

Zverev finished runner-up to Rafael Nadal in his title defence the following season and starts a warm favourite at 1/3 to claim his first piece of silverware of the 2024 campaign.

Jarry, a seasoned clay performer featuring in his seventh ATP Tour final on the slower surface, shouldn’t be taken lightly and is 12/5 to land the upset.

However, this is by some way the biggest match of the Chilean’s career as it is his maiden Masters 1000 final, so there is bound to be some tension in the early exchanges.

Alexander Zverev v Nicolas Jarry betting tips and predictions

Alexander Zverev to win 2-1 - 5/2

Zverev showed great character and composure to dig himself out of trouble in his semi-final victory over Tabilo, who must have been feeling pretty confident after taking the opening set 6-1.

That win looks even more impressive from the German when considering that Tabilo had eased past Djokovic 6-2 6-3 in an earlier round before eclipsing reliable Russian Karen Khachanov in another straight-sets victory.

Zverev didn’t look back after taking the second set tie-break as he clinched the deciding set 6-2 and his extra experience in high-pressure situations should stand him in good stead for this final.

While the German, a five-time Masters 1000 champion and former Grand Slam runner-up, raises his levels for the big occasion, this is Jarry’s toughest test of his career and it is difficult to know how he will adjust.

The Chilean has won three career titles but all at ATP 250 level, although his clay-court pedigree will stand him in good stead.

This is Jarry’s strongest surface by some way and his latest two wins over Stefanos Tsitsipas and Tommy Paul read particularly well.

However Zverev, in current form having lost only five of his last 21 matches, holds the aces and he leads his personal series with the Chilean 4-2.

They have shared two wins apiece on clay but three of their last four rivalries have gone Zverev’s way and the German third seed looks right back to his brilliant best.

So Zverev can prevail but the value may lie with him to win 2-1, which was the scoreline when this pair last met in the quarter-finals in Beijing in October.

Four of Jarry’s last six clay-court matches have gone the distance and this may do so too, albeit in a Zverev victory.

Over 0.5 tiebreaks - 1/1

These are two players that excel on serve which means breaks may be hard to come by and, with three sets likely, it may be worth backing a tiebreak to take place.

There has been a tiebreak in four of the six meetings between this pair, which includes three of their four matches on clay, and a repeat scenario looks a strong possibility.

Two of Zverev’s last four wins in Rome have featured a tiebreak while there has also been one in two of Jarry’s five tournament appearances.

With both players unlikely to give an inch in the early stages, it may even be the opening set that goes to a tiebreak.

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Alexander Zverev v Nicolas Jarry odds

Alexander Zverev - 1/3
Nicolas Jarry - 12/5

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.