Alex de Minaur bids to reach his second Wimbledon quarter‑final when he takes on Italy’s Flavio Cobolli on Monday in the last 16.
The Australian has been one of the most consistent performers of the first week at Wimbledon, easing past Adrian Mannarino, Roman Andres Burruchaga and Zachary Svajda with trademark speed and discipline.
The fifth seed has also sprinkled some improved grass‑court aggression on his game and looks better than ever on a surface which he has struggled to master in the past.
Cobolli, meanwhile, has taken the scenic route to the last eight. The 2026 French Open finalist has already played more than ten‑and‑a‑half hours at SW19, surviving three matches that all featured momentum swings and extended rallies.
His third‑round comeback against Karen Khachanov — recovering from a 6‑0 opening set and two sets to one down — was a match that encapsulated the Italian’s resilience and growing comfort on grass.
With de Minaur’s relentless running and Cobolli’s counterpunching grit, this matchup could produce long exchanges and plenty of drama.
Alex de Minaur v Flavio Cobolli Tips Summary
Best Bet - De Minaur -5.5 Games Match Handicap @ 5/6
Alternative Bet - De Minaur -1.5 on First Set Handicap @ 8/13
Bet Builder - De Minaur will win Set 1, Under 8.5 Games in Set 1 & Over 8.5 Breaks of Serve @ 17/2
Alex de Minaur v Flavio Cobolli Prediction
Best Bet: De Minaur -5.5 Games Match Handicap @ 5/6
De Minaur’s run to the fourth round has been impressive for how he has been able to gain the upper hand quickly in his matches.
He admitted first-round nerves and the loss his] fiancée, Katie Boulter, suffered against a qualifier in the match before he stepped out on court led to a slow start against Roman Burruchaga in round one.
But he won 12 games out of 13 after the first set tie-break to earn a 7-6 (7-5) 6-1 6-0 victory, wrapping up the final two sets in just 52 minutes.
It was a similar story then against Adrian Mannarino in the second round, and even when his third-round opponent, Zachary Svajda, stole the second set, the Australian No.1 responded immediately by reasserting himself in sets three and four.
In recent times, Cobolli has shown a tendency to suffer mid-set collapses that have made the score lopsided, such as losing two sets 6-1 in the French Open final.
That scoreline was repeated in his first set at this tournament against Mariano Navone, and he surrendered the opener to Khachanov without taking a game on Saturday.
Cobolli’s heavy workload — including more than ten hours spent on court — may also catch up with him against one of the fastest players in the sport.
The Australian has covered a -5.5 handicap in all three of his wins at this year’s tournament and has been winning sets comfortably thanks to his improved serve and willingness to step inside the baseline.
Alternative Bet: De Minaur -1.5 on First Set Handicap @ 8/13
Cobolli’s comeback against Khachanov was remarkable, but the Italian’s slow starts have become a pattern. He lost the opening set in two of his three matches so far, including a 6‑0 set in just 18 minutes on Saturday.
The recent Roland Garros finalist has already played two five‑set matches and has spent more than twice as long on court as de Minaur.
His second‑serve numbers have fluctuated, and his tendency to start slowly could leave him chasing the scoreboard again.
Against a player as sharp and disciplined as de Minaur, that kind of early deficit could be fatal.
The Australian has dropped only one set at Wimbledon this summer and has looked increasingly confident in closing out tight moments.
De Minaur, who broke serve eight times against Svajda and took the first set 6-2, should be able to take advantage of any sluggish start from Cobolli by winning the opener without the need for a tie-break.
Alex de Minaur v Flavio Cobolli Bet Builder
De Minaur will win Set 1
Under 8.5 Games in Set 1
Over 8.5 Breaks of Serve
Pays 17/2
De Minaur has started matches quickly all fortnight, winning his opening sets 7-6, 6‑3 and 6‑2, while Cobolli has failed to take more than one game in two of his three openers.
If Cobolli again struggles to find rhythm early, the first set could be short and controlled with fewer than nine games again.
The Australian has broken serve 21 times in his first three rounds and been broken seven times, while Cobolli has broken 13 times, once more than he last lost his own serve.
If those trends are repeated on Monday, there is scope for this match to feature more than eight breaks of serve.
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Key Match Stats
Cobolli has spent 10.5+ hours on court across his first three matches
Cobolli recovered from 2-1 down after losing the opening set 6-0 to beat Khachanov
De Minaur has dropped only one set all tournament
De Minaur won 6-2, 5-7, 6-2, 6-4 against Svajda in round three
Cobolli has lost the opening set in five of his last six matches
De Minaur won the opening set of his Wimbledon fourth-round match against Novak Djokovic 6-1 last year
Cobolli reached the Roland‑Garros final last month
Read more tennis betting tips and predictions on site.
This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
