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Super Bowl Trends: Does defense really win championships?

"Offense sells tickets, defense wins championships."

It's an adage as old as time, much like 'drive for show, putt for dough' in golf or the darting equivalent 'trebles for show, doubles for dough'.

But how true is it? Is it the case that the best defenses win championships, or do you need that superstar X-factor to lift the Vince Lombardi Trophy?

Ahead of Super Bowl LIX, with the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles facing in a rematch of Super Bowl LVII, we take a look at the numbers behind the last 10 Super Bowl winners and runners-up to see whether offense or defense really is more important on the big stage.

2024 - Kansas City Chiefs 25-22 (OT) San Francisco 49ers

2023 offensive rank

Points

Yards

Pass yards

Rush yards

Chiefs

15th

9th

6th

19th

49ers

3rd

2nd

4th

3rd

2023 defensive rank

Points

Yards

Pass yards

Rush yards

Chiefs

2nd

2nd

4th

18th

49ers

3rd

8th

14th

3rd

Unlike in their previous Super Bowl-winning years, the Chiefs boasted one of the best defensive records in the NFL, and while their offensive numbers were inferior in every aspect to the 49ers, San Francisco's reliable rushing game via Christian McCaffrey wasn't sufficient to topple the Chiefs.

Kansas City put up 325 passing yards - a figure the 49ers had allowed only once that season, and a figure they'd only posted themselves twice.

2023 - Kansas City Chiefs 38-35 Philadelphia Eagles

2022 offensive rank

Points

Yards

Pass yards

Rush yards

Chiefs

1st

1st

1st

20th

Eagles

3rd

3rd

9th

5th

2022 defensive rank

Points

Yards

Pass yards

Rush yards

Chiefs

16th

11th

18th

8th

Eagles

8th

2nd

1st

17th

The Eagles might have ranked second for yards allowed and first in passing yards allowed, but in the end they simply could not halt the offensive powerhouse that was the Chiefs in 2023.

Kansas City led the league in points scored, total yards and passing yards, rendering their 20th in rushing yards irrelevant as Mahomes delivered a performance of the ages to drive his team to victory.

Philadelphia were equally impressive on offense themselves as Jalen Hurts threw for 304 yards and rushed for 70. They just didn't have an answer to the exceptional Mahomes, no matter how hard they tried.

2022 - Los Angeles Rams 23-20 Cincinnati Bengals

2021 offensive rank

Points

Yards

Pass yards

Rush yards

Rams

8th

9th

5th

25th

Bengals

7th

13th

7th

23rd

2021 defensive rank

Points

Yards

Pass yards

Rush yards

Rams

15th

17th

22nd

6th

Bengals

17th

18th

26th

5th

Finishing with the wooden spoon in 2020, very few suspected Cincinnati would be contesting the Super Bowl two years later but with Joe Burrow under center, the Bengals had a quarterback they could build their offense around.

Less than 90 seconds away from claiming the Vince Lombardi Trophy, Matthew Stafford led the Rams to victory with a match-winning drive, meaning for the second successive year a team had won the Super Bowl in their own stadium.

Both offenses were similar - a productive QB with an elite primary receiver and a basic rushing service - and neither defense lit up the statistical columns.

2021 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31-9 Kansas City Chiefs

2020 offensive rank

Points

Yards

Pass yards

Rush yards

Buccaneers

3rd

7th

2nd

28th

Chiefs

6th

1st

1st

16th

2020 defensive rank

Points

Yards

Pass yards

Rush yards

Buccaneers

8th

6th

12th

1st

Chiefs

10th

16th

19th

21st

It's perhaps unwise to delve too deep into statistical analysis when reflecting on the 2021 Super Bowl. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers didn't even win their division and had to play all three play-off games on the road just to get there.

Unsurprisingly, with two elite quarterbacks, neither side put up particularly impressive rushing numbers throughout the season.

Despite being the game's up and coming superstar, Mahomes's Chiefs quite simply got old-manned by Tom Brady, and the Buccaneers ran out comfortable 31-9 victors.

2020 - Kansas City Chiefs 31-20 San Francisco 49ers

2019 offensive rank

Points

Yards

Pass yards

Rush yards

Chiefs

5th

6th

5th

23rd

49ers

2nd

4th

13th

2nd

2019 defensive rank

Points

Yards

Pass yards

Rush yards

Chiefs

7th

17th

8th

26th

49ers

8th

2nd

1st

17th

By this point you've probably noticed that the Chiefs in the Mahomes era have never been a particularly impressive rushing unit, but with one of the greatest quarterbacks to ever play the game, they've never needed to be.

They've also, by and large, not been particularly impressive defensively either, but with an elite QB under center, the Chiefs won their first Super Bowl of the Mahomes era in 2020, beating the 49ers 31-20.

The 49ers in 2019/20 allowed the second fewest yards and the fewest passing yards but were no match for Mahomes and the Chiefs' offense at Hard Rock Stadium.

2019 - New England Patriots 13-3 Los Angeles Rams

2018 offensive rank

Points

Yards

Pass yards

Rush yards

Patriots

4th

5th

8th

5th

Rams

2nd

2nd

5th

3rd

2018 defensive rank

Points

Yards

Pass yards

Rush yards

Patriots

7th

21st

22nd

11th

Rams

20th

19th

14th

23rd

Super Bowl LIII was painted as a battle of two supreme offenses but in the end it was a New England defensive masterclass that saw the Patriots prevail 13-3, the lowest-scoring Super Bowl in history.

Los Angeles were an offensive juggernaut during the regular season, putting up the second most offensive yards and points but they were scarcely recognisable in Atlanta. The Rams set a record by punting on all of their first eight possessions and Jared Goff struggled to unearth any rhythm throughout.

Had running back Todd Gurley been healthy, it might have been an entirely different outcome.

2018 - Philadelphia Eagles 41-33 New England Patriots

2017 offensive rank

Points

Yards

Pass yards

Rush yards

Eagles

3rd

7th

13th

30th

Patriots

2nd

1st

2nd

23rd

2017 defensive rank

Points

Yards

Pass yards

Rush yards

Eagles

4th

4th

17th

1st

Patriots

5th

29th

30th

20th

While reading too much into the Patriots at Super Bowls might not always paint a full picture, in this case it's the Eagles who require further inspection. Their defense allowed the fourth-fewest points all season, but the loss of Carson Wentz late in the campaign, replaced by back-up Nick Foles, was the story of the season.

While the Patriots put up the second-most points and passing yards and the most total yards, their leaky defence allowed the 29th-most yards.

Despite facing a back-up QB at the Super Bowl, the Patriots couldn't keep the Eagles out, meaning that their 500 passing yards and 33 points were all for nought, as the Eagles ran out 41-33 winners.

2017 - New England Patriots 34-28 (OT) Atlanta Falcons

2016 offensive rank

Points

Yards

Pass yards

Rush yards

Patriots

3rd

4th

4th

7th

Falcons

1st

2nd

3rd

5th

2016 defensive rank

Points

Yards

Pass yards

Rush yards

Patriots

1st

8th

12th

4th

Falcons

27th

25th

28th

17th

Again, it's hard to count this one too strongly towards any trends, considering the Atalanta Falcons were home and hosed at 28-3. So remarkable was the collapse/comeback that the 2017 Super Bowl is simply known as "28-3".

Led by MVP Matt Ryan, whose Falcons were the strongest offensive team in the 2016/17 regular season, Atlanta stormed to what should have been an unassailable lead before allowing 25 unanswered points, eventually going down in overtime.

2016 - Denver Broncos 24-10 Carolina Panthers

2015 offensive rank

Points

Yards

Pass yards

Rush yards

Broncos

19th

16th

14th

17th

Panthers

2nd

11th

24th

2nd

2015 defensive rank

Points

Yards

Pass yards

Rush yards

Broncos

4th

1st

1st

3rd

Panthers

6th

6th

11th

4th

Super Bowl 50 was billed as Cam Newton v Peyton Manning. Both defenses quite clearly never read the script.

Where Newton and Carolina were blowing away teams in the playoffs, Denver had minimal margin of error to work with as a result of an offense that was ranking middle of the road in a number of metrics.

In one of the most offensively challenged Super Bowl contests, it was the Broncos' defense that made more decisive plays to take the Vince Lombardi Trophy back to Denver.

The Broncos scored their first touchdown as a result of Von Miller strip-sacking Newton and the linebacker was at it again in the fourth quarter with another timely sack to set up their second touchdown of the night. Where the defense was domineering, the Broncos' offense floundered; Denver's 194 yards and 11 first downs were the lowest totals ever recorded by a Super Bowl winning team.

Not only did defense win the championship that night, but defense dominated the Super Bowl in general.

2015 - New England Patriots 28-24 Seattle Seahawks

2014 offensive rank

Points

Yards

Pass yards

Rush yards

Patriots

4th

11th

9th

18th

Seahawks

10th

9th

27th

1st

2014 defensive rank

Points

Yards

Pass yards

Rush yards

Patriots

8th

13th

17th

9th

Seahawks

1st

1st

1st

3rd

In comparison to our other Super Bowl studies concerning teams that thrived on the ground, this match would have been an anomaly were it not for arguably one of the worst play calls since the NFL began.

Trailing 28-24, the Seahawks - who had ranked first for rushing yards in the regular season courtesy of Marshawn Lynch's brute strength - were at the one-yard line with 26 seconds left. Instead of using Lynch as a battering ram like everyone anticipated, Seattle opted to call a pass play.

What unfolded was one of the most astonishing endings in Super Bowl history as Russell Wilson fired the ball at Ricardo Lockette, only for Patriots corner Malcom Butler to correctly read the play and intercept.

Defeat ultimately meant that Seattle's famed 'Legion of Boom', one of the greatest secondaries in NFL history, were unable to add a second Super Bowl title which their defensive prowess most definitely deserved.

If anyone was going to topple the NFL's best-ranked defense, it was Tom Brady.

Summary

In the last 10 years:

  • The lowest ranked team in terms of rushing yards has won the Super Bowl every year

  • No team in the top four for rushing yards has won the Super Bowl

  • Only two teams in the top half of the league in rushing yards have won the Super Bowl

Based on that, it doesn't bode well for the Eagles. Generally, teams have ranked highly in terms of passing yards and no one worse than the Denver Broncos (14th) has won the Super Bowl, making things even tougher for the 29-ranked Eagles, who've relied so much on Saquon Barkley.

But what about offense selling tickets and defense winning championships?

Well, in terms of points allowed, the Super Bowl winners have had a superior record than the runners-up in eight of the last 10 years, which slightly favours the Eagles (2nd) over the Chiefs (4th) this year.

In terms of yards allowed, only six of the last 10 Super Bowl winners have had a superior record, but as we've seen throughout the years, teams with more porous defenses have still gone on to lift the Vince Lombardi Trophy, purely on account of their offense.

While seven of the last 10 winners have ranked sixth or better in terms of passing yards, only two have ranked in the top six for passing yards allowed, with a similar story in terms of total yards. While it's obviously advantageous to be strong defensively, it's more often than not a team who can rely on an elite passer to get them over the line.

Offense sells tickets; it appears it wins championships, too.

2025 - Kansas City Chiefs v Philadelphia Eagles

2024 offensive rank

Points

Yards

Pass yards

Rush yards

Chiefs

15th

16th

14th

22nd

Eagles

7th

8th

29th

1st

2024 defensive rank

Points

Yards

Pass yards

Rush yards

Chiefs

4th

9th

18th

8th

Eagles

2nd

1st

1st

10th

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