Luca Brecel v Jak Jones: Prediction, Tips and Odds

Luca Brecel catapulted himself into snooker's public consciousness with his 2023 World Championship win, but the Belgian potter has endured his share of struggles since and arrives in York needing a lift.

The 29-year-old talent is in real danger of suffering the ignominy of losing his tour card at the end of the season, with his current provisional ranking of 61st.

He faces last season's Crucible finalist Jak Jones in the first round at York's Barbican Centre on Monday evening and Brecel may be an underdog worth backing.

Luca Brecel v Jak Jones betting tips and predictions

Luca Brecel to win @ 11/8

Jones has been put in as the odds-on jolly to win this opening round tussle in York and the Welshman could be an uneasy favourite.

He made his run to the World Championship final last season, but Jones' pedigree is not on the level of Brecel.

He also had a quarter-final appearance in Sheffield in 2023 and there is no doubting the dogged nature of Jones' playing style has helped in the marathon environment of the Crucible.

Away from there, the world number 17 hasn't truly made a lasting mark. He has lost in the UK Championship qualifiers in the preceding two seasons and six of eight appearances in this Triple Crown event had ended in the first or second round.

Brecel, meanwhile, is appearing in the UK Championship main draw for the 13th successive year and was a finalist in 2021 - losing to Zhao Xintong - while he has two quarter-finals on his CV and just a solitary first-round loss.

That came against an inspired Nigel Bond in 2020, with the Englishman running to the quarter-finals and claiming the scalp of Judd Trump before a deciding frame exit against Mark Allen.

Neither of these players has been in top gear of late. At the Champion of Champions this month, Brecel started well against Kyren Wilson but lost 4-1 as the world champion knocked in breaks of 132, 79 and 115 to take the match away from him.

Jones went down 6-4 to Allen, despite having held an early 3-0 lead.

The Welshman won 4-2 when this pair clashed at the British Open in September in Cheltenham.

Despite that, Brecel may find some form here. The Belgian Bullet relishes the big stage and he will know that he needs to start putting results on the board to preserve his tour card.

This has the potential to be a close battle and, at the prices, Brecel makes more appeal.

Total Frames 2-Way - Over 9.5 @ 1/1

It's unlikely either player will run away with this contest and over 9.5 frames is a solid option for anyone struggling to separate their pair.

Brecel whitewashed Jones at the 2017 Shanghai Masters but, that aside, their other two meetings have been close encounters, with Jones winning 4-3 at the Gibraltar Open in 2022 and then 4-2 in the fourth round at the British Open this season.

Jones' loss to Allen at the Champion of Champions ran to 10 frames in a best-of-11 and he needed nine frames to get past Fan Zhengyi in his final qualifier for this tournament.

If Brecel is going to emerge on top, it may go close to the distance.

Luca Brecel Over 0.5 Centuries @ 6/5

Brecel is without a ton-plus contribution so far this season, but he may end the wait if he finds some form in York.

He has compiled six efforts in the 80s and 90s, including 83 when he took the opener off Wilson at the Champion of Champions before the Warrior froze him out.

With more than 200 career centuries, he has the back catalogue to thrive in the scoring department if he gets some confidence going.

The Barbican holds good memories and Brecel presents as the type of player that will thrive more on the grandest of snooker stages rather than the more low-key ones.

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Luca Brecel v Jak Jones odds

Luca Brecel - 11/8
Jak Jones - 4/7

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.