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Scottish Open: Prediction, Tips and Odds

The co-sanctioned event between the PGA TOUR and the DP World Tour will see many of the world's best tee it up at the Renaissance Club in preparation for next week's Open Championship, and Mike Glasscott has eight picks to follow.

Scottish Open

Mike Glasscott: Genesis Scottish Open Tips

Win: Aaron Rai (45/1), Ludvig Aberg (18/1)
Top 10: Tom Kim (3/1), Tommy Fleetwood (12/5)
Top 20: Jordan Smith (4/1), Tom McKibbin (3/1)
Top 40: Grant Forrest (33/10), Victor Perez (7/4)

The Renaissance Club course guide

Built by Tom Doak in 2008, The Renaissance Club took over hosting duties for the 2019 tournament.

The links adjacent to the famous Muirfield on the Firth of Forth, originally played as a Par-71 at 7,138 yards. The 2024 tournament will play 7,237 yards for the third straight event.

The 35-35 layout features five Par-3 holes and three Par-5 holes. The inward nine contains three Par-3 holes and two Par-5 holes but still plays to 35 on the card.

With slightly over 61 feet of putts made per round, The Renaissance Club ranked No. 1 on TOUR in 2023.

Only Torrey Pines was stingier from inside 10 feet on the greens.

Large, fine fescue putting surfaces make it difficult to get approach shots close. Averaging just over 44 feet in regulation, The Renaissance Club ranked No. 1 on TOUR in 2023 in Proximity and was No. 2 in Proximity from the Fairway and Proximity from the rough.

The key to any links course is keeping the ball out of the tall fescue and bunkers. With large landing areas off the tee, and massive green complexes, errant shots will be punished, and bogeys will accumulate.

If the wind does not howl and the rain stays away, the Par-70 can be had. Last year, Byeong Hun An matched the course record of 61 in the first round. Bernd Wiesberger was the first to achieve 61 on his way to victory in the first edition at The Renaissance Club in 2019. The Austrian also holds the tournament scoring record (-22; 262).

The 42nd Genesis Scottish Open preview

The event, dating back to the early 1970s, has provided a tune-up before The Open Championship since 1997. Since 2022, the tournament has featured a partnership with the DP World Tour and PGA TOUR.

The field of 156 players included 75 from the DP World Tour, three players from the KPGA, and six sponsor’s exemptions. The rest of the places are filled by the PGA TOUR.

Entered this week from the Official World Golf Ranking are six of the top seven players and 13 of the top 20.

The field will be cut to the top 65 and ties after 36 holes. The highest cut in the previous five events was five-under-par 139 in the first playing at The Renaissance Club in 2019.

The five previous winners have represented five different countries. None of the champions are from Scotland and all have previously won a professional event.

There are eight past champions in the field, including all five from The Renaissance Club.

The previous five winners registered in the top four of SG: Tee to Green.

Phil Mickelson won the 2013 Scottish Open and is the last winner to be victorious the following week at The Open Championship.

The winner will take home 500 FedExCup points plus $1.62 million from the $9 million purse.

The top THREE players not already qualified will qualify for the 152nd Open Championship at Royal Troon.

Top of the Board  

Rory McIlroy (8/1): Making his return after losing the back-nine duel at the U.S. Open, I’m not sure if the vibes of being defending champion can outweigh the result from Pinehurst No. 2. Golf is never played in a vacuum. These are human beings. If he runs into one this week, I’ll blame his ridiculous talent.

Xander Schauffele (9/1): Making his fourth consecutive start at The Renaissance Club, the 2024 PGA Championship winner will look to pick up his second title in Scotland in the last three years. Checking off his first major championship at Valhalla, this year is already a success.

Collin Morikawa (16/1): Winning The Open Championship at Royal St. George’s in record-setting fashion put a second major championship on his mantle. The 2020 PGA Championship winner has been knocking at the door for the last three months.

Ludvig Aberg (16/1): Already a winner on the DP World Tour and PGA TOUR, the next step is knocking over a major championship. With that option not on the table this week, the Swedish star should enjoy tuning up on a course that rewards superior driving and iron play. Missing the cut on debut last year, he should have a plan to take it deep into the weekend.

Tommy Fleetwood (20/1): Cashing in the top six in three of his last four starts at The Renaissance Club, the Englishman must be on the card this week. Growing up on the Southport coast of England, the weather, wind, and conditions are familiar foes. Oddly, he has more wins in the deserts than on the links over his career.

Viktor Hovland (20/1): The flashes at Valhalla have not continued across four rounds in subsequent events. Losing strokes around the greens puts too much pressure on the iron game. If I’m reattaching myself, it will be next week after the rust is off and where he has produced T13 or better in the last three Open Championships.

Min Woo Lee (28/1): After winning here in 2021 and finishing in a tie for second place in his last time out, the converging trends are tempting. Powerful off the tee, the Australian has already demonstrated he can chip and putt on these links.

Tom Kim (28/1): Playing from the final group last year, the Korean could not keep up with McIlroy and eventually cashed T6. After solo third in the 2022 event, his first time at The Renaissance Club, the 22-year-old has plenty of perspective on what it takes to get it over the finish line in Scotland. Playing his best golf of 2024 over the last month, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him on the first page of the leaderboard Sunday.

Players to consider for Top 10, Top 20, or Top 40 action:

Aaron Rai (45/1): The 2020 winner here in October, not many are hitting it as well as the Englishman has over the last month. Fresh off T2 in Detroit, followed by T7 at the John Deere Classic last week, the constant battering of sprinkler lines and greens in regulation should fill him with confidence again this week.

Thomas Detry (60/1): Recent course form includes a playoff loss in 2021 to Min Woo Lee the Belgian has been churning out solid results before and after his T4 at the PGA Championship.

Tom McKibbin (80/1): Losing out in a playoff in Italy in his last time out, the Northern Irishman is cranking out top-10 paydays on the DP World Tour like his Holywood, Northern Ireland, neighbor is doing on the PGA TOUR.

Jordan Smith (125/1): With two top-25 paydays from his last two starts at North Berwick, I’ll point out he was the 54-hole leader last week in Munich.

Matthieu Pavon (80/1): The winner at Torrey Pines earlier this year won’t have a problem navigating 7,237 yards. Posting big finishes seems to be the rule, not the exception.

Victor Perez (150/1): Played out of The Renaissance Club when he lived in Scotland from 2017-2023.

Grant Forrest (400/1): The local favorite has cashed four times in five tries, including solo 11th place last year.

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