Toulouse v Harlequins: Prediction, Tips and Odds

The second semi-final of the Champions Cup sees two sides that have already faced off in the group stages this season meet again, as Toulouse host Harlequins at the Stade Ernest-Wallon.

Ugo Mola’s side ran out comfortable 47-19 winners at Twickenham Stoop in December and the French outfit will be confident that they can reach a record eighth final in this competition.

Toulouse are the most successful team in this tournament, with the most recent of their five trophy lifts coming in 2021, where they edged fellow Top 14 side La Rochelle 22-17 at Twickenham.

The Quins have never reached the final of the Champions Cup and, after losing their home meeting earlier this year, will be underdogs to defeat the tournament favourites on their own turf.

Toulouse v Harlequins betting tips and predictions

Toulouse to win by 11-20 points - 11/4

With their last defeat at home in any competition coming in September 2022, Toulouse will be expected to come out on top in their usual dominant fashion when they meet Quins on Sunday.

The French side have won their 15 home matches in all competitions this season and the majority of these victories have come with a healthy margin, with just four of these successes coming by fewer than 12 points.

Harlequins have a tough task ahead of them if they are to claim their first win at the Stade Ernest-Wallon since 2011 - which remains their only ever victory over Toulouse from their five head-to-heads - but their away form in this competition may provide some hope that they can at least ask questions of the hosts’ backline, having won all three of their away games so far.

However, the Quins have lost six of their 13 away games this season in all competitions, including two of their last three, and so form may point to another defeat in the south of France.

Expect the hosts to make the final once again and, with no side scoring more points than Toulouse’s 273 in the tournament, another win by over a two-score margin could be in store.

Peato Mauvaka anytime tryscorer - 10/11

No side has scored more tries than Toulouse in this season’s Champions Cup - with Ugo Mola’s men crossing the line on 40 occasions - and 19 separate tryscorers have found their name on the scoresheet for the French club.

Backs Matthis Lebel and Blair Kinghorn have both registered four tries apiece this season, as well as hooker Peato Mauvaka, and the latter is our pick to increase his tally on Sunday.

Toulouse lead the way in terms of metres made in this year’s competition with 3297 and the driving ability of the forwards could be pivotal in deciding the outcome of this encounter.

With Mauvaka named ahead of captain Julien Marchand for this semi-final, the 27-year-old looks a strong option to be one of the primary threats from the scrum to drive over the line.

Andre Esterhuizen anytime tryscorer - 12/5

Although the odds may not be on their side, Harlequins do possess an abundance of attacking quality that could see them trouble the Toulouse defence.

Fly-half Marcus Smith leads the way in terms of points (74) and conversions (28), however centre Andre Esterhuizen will likely be the greatest tryscoring outlet for the visitors, having bagged five tries already in this tournament.

This puts the South African second in the rankings, behind Bordeaux’s Louise Bielle-Biarrey, and this form will put him in good stead to increase his own personal tally at the weekend.

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Toulouse v Harlequins odds

Toulouse - 1/14
Draw - 40/1
Harlequins - 8/1

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.