South Africa v New Zealand: Prediction, Tips and Odds

It has been five years since South Africa last lifted the Rugby Championship trophy, but the Springboks are on the brink of being crowned champions in 2024.

Rassie Erasmus’ men have been the standout team of the tournament, winning all three games and they still have two home fixtures remaining.

They will need to create history if they are to claim another success this weekend, as they have never previously won four consecutive matches against the All Blacks.

But the world champions have already shown they are capable of beating a New Zealand team who look to be in transition and still searching for their best starting XV.

South Africa v New Zealand betting tips and predictions

Handicap: South Africa -5 @ 10/11

After winning the World Cup in 2023, South Africa have gone from strength to strength, losing just one of their last seven Tests since lifting the trophy in France last year.

Recent performances have highlighted the Springboks’ attacking threat, with Erasmus’ squad having averaged 35.71 points per game since their World Cup success.

The hosts ran in three tries in last week’s success in Cape Town, fighting back from 11-12 down at half-time to cement their place at the top of the Rugby Championship table with a third straight win.

The Springboks are particularly hard to beat on home soil, with a one-point defeat to Ireland in July their only loss in their last eight home Tests.

In contrast, New Zealand, who have been Rugby Championship winners in the last four years, have lost three of their last seven Tests.

A shock defeat at home to Argentina last month was followed by a 42-10 victory over the Pumas, but their fragility was highlighted again in their Cape Town loss last week.

Team to Score First – New Zealand @ 21/20

The stats show New Zealand were in the lead for 66 minutes of last Saturday’s clash, with South Africa in front in Cape Town for just 10 minutes.

A try from All Blacks hooker Codie Taylor opened the scoring in the sixth minute and after last week's loss, expect the visitors to begin with purpose.

It’s also worth noting that Scott Robertson’s New Zealand also held the early lead in both recent matches against Argentina.

Robertson has decided to drop Beauden Barrett to the bench for Saturday’s encounter, while half-back TJ Perenara is also named amongst the replacements.

Will Jordan replaces Barrett at full-back, while Cortez Ratima will start at scrum-half. Winger Caleb Clarke and flanker Ethan Blackadder are both missing through injury.

Anytime Tryscorer - Cheslin Kolbe @ 29/20

South Africa have decided to make seven changes to the team who won last week, but Cheslin Kolbe is one of the players to keep their place in the starting XV.

The former Toulouse and Toulon winger has established himself as a key figure in the Springboks backline, which is boosted by the return of the experienced Willie le Roux at full-back on Saturday.

Kolbe is yet to score a try in this season’s Rugby Championship, but his performances have been good and his record against the All Blacks makes impressive reading.

The 30-year-old has scored three tries in seven previous meetings with New Zealand, including his first international try, in Wellington in a 36-34 Springboks win in 2018.

Only one of his 15 Test match tries have come in Cape Town, which was in a narrow win over the British and Irish Lions in August 2021.

With the points flowing for the Rugby Championship leaders in recent games, Kolbe will be confident that he can add to his tally on Saturday.

South Africa v New Zealand odds

South Africa - 1/2
Draw - 20/1
New Zealand - 17/10

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.