Scotland v Wales: Free Tips, Prediction and Odds

Scotland's and Wales' respective losses in round three of the Six Nations could be a study of how defeats can be contextualised.

For the Scots, it was another near miss, outscoring England by three tries to one but failing with all three shots at goal to lose 16-15.

Duhan van der Merwe's expression after going over for what could have been the match-winning score was indicative. 

In the heat of the moment, the wing failed to recognise that he had space to run closer to the posts, in fact moving towards the touchline to avoid any cover defenders, touching down with an almost defeated look on his face before seemingly apologising to Finn Russell for making the subsequently unsuccessful kick harder than it needed to be.

In contrast, Wales' showing in their 27-18 loss to Ireland hinted at fresh forward momentum and greater fluency in the back-line, despite interim boss Matt Sherratt only having three training sessions to work with the squad following Warren Gatland's departure.

It will be interesting to see what Sherratt has looked to improve over the last fortnight but although they claimed the moral victory, there is no shying away from the fact the Welsh have lost their last 15 Tests.

For all of Scotland's fallibility, defeat number 16 appears inevitable.   

Scotland v Wales free betting tips and predictions

Wales +15.5 - 11/10

Despite the fresh optimism surrounding Welsh rugby, they are still on a record losing run and Scotland, despite defeats to Ireland and England, should have too much at Murrayfield.

There is already talk that Gregor Townsend could step down or move into a new role after the Six Nations. Sherratt's situation also appears unclear, with the Welsh public behind him but the 47-year-old adamant that his priority is to return to his job at Cardiff.

Selecting an unchanged starting XV for the first time in 66 Tests, a run stretching back to 2019, will help continuity, as will having inspirational hooker Dewi Lake back available from the bench.

Scotland have also been boosted by Darcy Graham's return to the wing in the only change to Townsend's team with the coach clearly happy with how they performed at Twickenham, despite falling short.

Giving Russell an easy early kick to build his confidence could be crucial and Scotland should win with something to spare.

However, they have dropped off at times in all three of their matches and a Wales side playing without pressure is worth backing to keep the scoreline relatively respectable. 

Duhan van der Merwe to score two or more tries - 4/1

Van der Merwe's late try at Twickenham was his record-extending 33rd score for Scotland.

With Graham back in the side, the Scots have world class threats on both flanks but Van der Merwe's physicality gives him a real edge on his rangy, yet slight, direct opponent, Tom Rogers.

Rogers and his Scarlets colleague Ellis Mee both impressed against Ireland, and Rogers scored his team's second try.

Both are tall and elusive runners, but Van der Merwe's brute strength enhances his evasiveness.

The 29-year-old touched down twice in last year's match in Cardiff and could grab another double on Saturday.

Ben White anytime tryscorer - 15/8

Van der Merwe looks certain to tour with the British & Irish Lions in the summer and could be joined by international colleague Ben White.

The scrum-half's efforts have gone under the radar in recent years, perhaps due to Russell being so brilliant outside him, but he is enjoying the form of his life and has scored tries in his team's first three Six Nations games - the first Scot in history to do so.

Scotland's backline is full of players who can break the opposition's defensive system and, like all great number nines, White's penchant for following the ball allows him to get on the end of the moves, while he is also an expert at sniping around rucks.

With him and Wales' Tomos Williams rivals for a Lions spot, expect the Toulon man to do all he can to add to his try count.

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Scotland v Wales odds

Scotland - 1/10
Tie - 40/1
Wales - 13/2

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.